Gold News: Rate Cut Odds at 97%—What’s Next for the Gold Price Future?

Gold Price Holds Near Highs as Shutdown Delays Data, Rate Cut Bets Firm Up

Gold is holding firm on Friday, trading slightly higher but still consolidating inside Thursday’s broad range. The market remains under key technical resistance at the swing chart balance price of $3879.64 and Thursday’s all-time high at $3897.13. A clean breakout above these levels would put the psychological $4000.00 handle in play.

At 11:11 GMT, XAU/USD is trading $3863.49, up $6.93 or +0.18%.

On the downside, initial support comes in at the pivot price of $3807.32. A breakdown through that level opens the door to the minor bottom at $3717.52 and a deeper 50% retracement zone at $3704.44 — both levels that could flip short-term momentum bearish if breached.

Will the Federal Reserve Cut Again After Data Blackout?

Gold is on track for a seventh straight weekly gain, up 2.6% so far, as the ongoing U.S. government shutdown has triggered a delay in the key non-farm payrolls release and other federal economic data. That absence of fresh inputs increases reliance on alternate data, which now shows a stalled labor market and no change in unemployment.

Traders are fully pricing in a 25 basis point cut from the Fed in October, with CME FedWatch now showing a 97% probability, and an 88% chance of another cut in December. Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan signaled a cautious stance, acknowledging last month’s cut was a proactive move, but offered no strong push for further easing yet.

UBS strategist Giovanni Staunovo sees the case for gold continuing to run higher, saying softer labor data justifies rate cuts and could lift gold above $4000.00 over the coming months.

Shutdown Fallout: No Jobs Data, Higher Yields, and Dollar Pressured

The shutdown, now in its third day, is adding to market uncertainty and pushing Treasury yields slightly higher. The U.S. 10-year yield ticked up to 4.092%, while the 30-year bond yield stands at 4.691%.

Still, the dollar index is under pressure, down 0.1% to 97.78, on pace for its worst weekly performance since late July.

Without fresh labor market data, traders are flying blind into next week’s Fed speakers and the delayed macro calendar. Meanwhile, physical demand for gold picked up in India despite record prices, while China’s markets were closed.

Gold Price Forecast: Bulls Need a Break Above $3897.13

With rate cut expectations firming and the U.S. dollar under pressure, the gold market bias remains bullish heading into the weekend. But for this rally to extend, bulls need a decisive break above $3897.13 to unlock the $4000.00 target.

If gold fails to clear $3879.64 and slips back below $3807.32, watch for momentum to shift lower toward the $3704.44 support zone. Until then, dips are likely to be bought, and the path of least resistance remains to the upside.

Stay nimble — next week’s central bank commentary could be the next catalyst.

More Information in our Economic Calendar.