Gold News: Record Breakout as Iran Tensions Push Price Toward $5,000 Target

Gold Surges to Record Highs: Iran Tensions and Fed Uncertainty Drive Historic Rally

Spot gold (XAUUSD) continues to climb on Wednesday, hitting another record high. The safe-haven rally is being fueled by escalating tensions in Iran and concern over the Federal Reserve’s independence. Rising expectations of additional rate cuts by the Fed are also supportive after the release of softer consumer inflation figures on Tuesday.

At 12:39 GMT, XAUUSD is trading $4,635.30, up $49.30 or +1.07%.

Perfect Storm of Catalysts Propels Gold Higher

Essentially, traders are taking advantage of a perfect cluster of key events including geopolitical risks, elevated monetary and fiscal uncertainty, and worries about the Fed’s autonomy. There is no resistance on the charts since we’re at record highs, and there doesn’t appear to be any major sellers standing in the way. Some traders are chasing the momentum, so it’s safe to say the market will continue to rally until it gets too expensive—but who knows what expensive is at this point. The $5,000 target, which was the objective for 2026 for some analysts, seems to be within striking distance before the end of the month.

Trump’s Pressure Campaign Intensifies Market Uncertainty

President Trump appears to be at the forefront of this historical situation with daily comments about punishing Iran for its treatment of protesters and his relentless calls for the Fed’s Jerome Powell to cut interest rates “meaningfully”. Earlier in the week, the Trump administration threatened him with criminal charges after launching an investigation into Fed spending on its renovated headquarters. Meanwhile, global central bankers have rallied around Powell, expressing support for the Fed Chair and issuing an “unprecedented statement of solidarity”, according to Reuters.

Technical Analysis: Bulls Firmly in Control

Technically, the main trend is up with today’s new record high at $4,639.89. Traders have been buying strength, so we haven’t had a pullback in four days. This has created a minor bottom at $4,407.83 and a main bottom at $4,274.02 as the nearest support points.

The 50-day moving average at $4,261.35 continues to act as strong technical support for the rally.

What to Watch: Iran Remains the Key Catalyst

Looking ahead, the situation in Iran, in my opinion, should be the biggest catalyst to watch. As tensions escalate, gold traders have been increasingly willing to chase the market higher. The Fed and interest rates join the 50-day moving average in providing a floor for traders, but the problems in Iran are the main driver. Prices could surge sharply higher if the U.S. takes military action against Iran. In this case, I think we’ll see $5,000 sooner than expected.

More Information in our Economic Calendar.