Gold Price Consolidates Ahead of NFP: Key Levels for XAUUSD, US Dollar, and Bond Yield

Gold (XAU) price consolidates in a tight range on Wednesday as easing trade tensions reduce safe-haven demand. Positive developments in US tariff talks and signs of a potential China-US trade agreement improved risk sentiment. As a result, investors shifted their focus away from gold and toward risk-based assets.

Moreover, comments from US officials, including President Trump and the Treasury Secretary, signaled a more lenient approach to tariffs in the automotive sector. The move to exempt certain goods and reduce tariff overlap further boosted global market confidence. Additionally, optimism around a potential Russia-Ukraine peace deal added further pressure on gold prices.

The market is awaiting key US economic data, including the ADP Employment Change, PCE Index, and the flash Q1 GDP report. Moreover, the release of April’s NFP data is significant for the next direction of gold. If the data disappoints, the US dollar may weaken, which could boost gold prices. However, stronger figures could reinforce bearish pressure on gold.

Gold (XAU) Technical Analysis

Gold Daily Chart – Consolidation

The daily chart for gold shows that the price is consolidating below the resistance of the ascending broadening wedge pattern at $3,370. This consolidation is driven by extreme overbought conditions on the weekly and monthly charts, signaling a potential correction. However, the overall price structure remains firmly bullish, indicating that any pullback should be viewed as a buying opportunity. The key support remains at $3,150, which aligns with the previous resistance level of the ascending broadening wedge pattern.

Gold 4-Hour Chart – Short-Term Price Extension

The 4-hour chart for gold shows a correction from extreme overbought levels, extended by the upper boundary of the ascending channel. The pullback from $3,500 has brought the price back within the channel, with initial support in the $3,200 to $3,250 area. Additionally, the RSI stabilizes near the midpoint, indicating that the market is awaiting key US data before making its next directional move.

Treasury Yields (TNX) Technical Analysis

10-Year Treasury Note Yield Daily Chart – 200-Day and 50-Day SMA

The daily chart for the 10-year US Treasury yield shows a decline from the resistance area near 4.60%, gradually approaching the 4.10% level. Consequently, these fluctuations, ranging from 4.00% to 4.60%, reflect heightened volatility. Moreover, the RSI is moving below the midpoint, indicating bearish momentum in Treasury yields.

10-Year Treasury Note Yield 4-Hour Chart – Negative Development

The 4-hour chart for US Treasury yields shows that yields failed to break below the 4% level and initiated a rebound. However, the rebound also was unable to break above 4.60%, leading to a lower-level consolidation. Technical analysis indicates substantial price consolidation between 4.00% and 4.60%; a breakout in either direction will define the next move. Repeated failures to break above 4.60% suggest a bearish bias in yield momentum.

US Dollar (DXY) Technical Analysis

US Dollar Daily – Bearish Pressure

The daily chart for the US Dollar Index shows consolidation below the 100 level, highlighting ongoing weakness. The failure to break above 100, despite oversold conditions, indicates intense bearish pressure. A break below 98 would signal further downside in the index. The market is now awaiting the NFP data, which will likely set the tone for the next move in the US dollar.

US Dollar 4-Hour Chart – Descending Channel

The 4-hour chart for the US Dollar Index shows consolidation within the orange zone, which marks strong oversold levels. As a result, the index is absorbing selling pressure by stabilizing at lower levels. However, if it fails to break below 98, a rebound toward the 101.40 and 102.90 resistance levels could follow.