Gold Price Forecast – Gold Markets Break Hard to the Downside

Gold markets have broken down during the trading session on Tuesday as the US dollar has picked up a bit of momentum. That of course is toxic for gold, and we have even pierced the $1800 level. Between the $1800 level and the $1750 level, I suspect there is a significant amount of support that traders will be looking at. The question now is whether or not the uptrend in gold is over, or are we simply forming a larger basing pattern? I think that still a bit of an open question but with yields rising in the United States, if it does not stop, that will cause a breakdown in the gold market.

The shape of the candlestick does imply that there is a certain amount of support underneath though, as we have seen a significant turnaround in the market as New York came on board. Whether or not we can break above the 50 day EMA above will determine whether or not we get a bigger move. Ultimately, I do think that this is a scenario that will continue to be very noisy in general, but I think the next couple of weeks we should get some answers.

Pay close attention to the 10 year note, because the 1.30% level being broken to the upside could unleash a flurry of US dollar buying and by extension massive amounts of gold selling. If it does not happen, then we may be still able to save the overall uptrend. Short-term back-and-forth range bound trading is probably about as good as it gets in the meantime, with an eye on the $1860 level above offering significant resistance.