Gold Price Forecast – The Bottom Is In, But Danger Remains

• Last Friday, I wrote, “The Final Shakeout Is Happening Now,” and it increasingly looks like precious metals and miners bottomed that day.
• At the time, I believed a potential low was forming and alerted premium members in an afternoon update, suggesting it might not be a bad time to try picking a bottom. Gold was below $3,900, silver was near $49.00, and GDX was just above $76.00.
• Near-term uncertainty remains in the broader stock market, however. Democrats swept the elections decisively, and I suspected that outcome could trigger a market selloff. Stocks initially rallied before plunging on Thursday, and Friday’s hotter-than-expected payroll report could extend the selling pressure.

The Gold Cycle Indicator

Our Gold Cycle Indicator is at 41, coming off a deeply oversold reading of 6 last Friday.

KOSPI

South Korea’s stock market is sitting on the neckline of a potential head-and-shoulders topping pattern. With today’s breakdown in the S&P 500, the index could break below critical support at 5,300 overnight, potentially triggering a waterfall decline. The measured downside target is near 3,000, implying a drop of more than 40% from current levels.

WTIC

Crude oil broke lower following the midterm elections, but I’m not convinced prices have entered a sustained downtrend. We would need to see consecutive closes below the 200-day moving average.

GOLD

Gold is back above $4,000, and I see the potential for an undercut low. Prices appear to have bottomed in late October, similar to the pattern we saw in 2022. Breaking below last Friday’s low ($3,870) would be bearish and increase the risk of a deeper correction. But for now, as long as gold holds above $3,950, I believe the odds favor a Q4 low and a resumption of the broader uptrend.

SILVER

Silver formed a swing low and is attempting to establish a bottom along the lower boundary of its falling wedge pattern. I believe the odds favor a sustainable low as long as prices hold above $49.00.

PLATINUM

Platinum is back above $1,500 and may be forming an undercut low. As long as prices hold above $1,415, the outlook favors a sustained bottom and a resumption of the uptrend.

GDX

Gold miners surged more than 9% yesterday and edged even higher today despite a broad market selloff. Consecutive closes above the trendline near $88.00 would strongly support the case for a sustainable bottom. However, if the S&P 500 continues to slide, broader market weakness could eventually spill over into GDX.

GDXJ

Junior miners still have some ground to cover before breaking above the cycle trendline. However, as long as prices hold above $100, I see the potential for a sustainable bottom.

SILJ

Silver juniors need to close above the cycle trendline to confirm an upside breakout. However, as long as prices hold above $23.00, I believe the potential for a sustainable bottom remains intact.

S&P 500

Wednesday’s rally back above the 50-day EMA was surprising, given that I expected a sharp downturn if Democrats swept both the House and Senate, as they ultimately did. Apparently, the market meltdown was on a delayed timer. If selling continues tomorrow, things could get ugly, and I’m concerned that broader market weakness could begin spilling over into miners. The next support area is near 7,260, followed by 7,000.

BITCOIN

Bitcoin bounced following the midterm elections but quickly rolled over alongside equities. If the stock market selloff continues, a breakdown below $75,000 could trigger a waterfall decline toward $60,000. Fresh Q4 lows are also possible if the broader market rout persists into December.

 In Closing

Next week, I’ll be watching South Korea’s KOSPI closely. Continued weakness or a deeper meltdown could trigger additional selling pressure in U.S. equities.

Overall, gold appears to be following a bottoming pattern similar to 2022. If that comparison holds, the longer-term uptrend should resume, potentially carrying gold above $10,000 by 2030.

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