Based on the early price action, the direction of the June Comex Gold market on Wednesday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the 50% level at $1307.90 and the downtrending Gann angle at $1306.80.
Gold futures are trading nearly flat on Wednesday as traders await the release of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) report at 12:30 GMT and the minutes of the U.S. Federal Reserve March meeting at 18:00 GMT. Consumer inflation is expected to have increased due to rising gasoline prices. The Fed minutes could move gold prices higher if there is a dovish surprise like rate cut discussion.
At 12:05 GMT, June Comex Gold is trading $1307.70, down $0.80 or -0.05%.
The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart. The main trend will change to up on a trade through $1330.80. A move through $1284.90 will signal a resumption of the downtrend.
The short-term range is $1330.80 to $1284.90. The market is currently testing its retracement zone at $1307.90 to $1313.30. This zone is controlling the near-term direction of the gold market.
On the upside, the retracement zone target is $1320.50 to $1328.80. On the downside, the retracement zone target comes in at $1285.50 to $1268.90.
Based on the early price action, the direction of the June Comex Gold market on Wednesday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the 50% level at $1307.90 and the downtrending Gann angle at $1306.80.
A sustained move over $1307.90 will indicate the presence of buyers. This could trigger a surge into the Fibonacci level at $1313.30. Sellers could come in on a test of this level. If buyers can take out this level then look for a potential acceleration into a downtrending Gann angle at $1318.80, followed by a 50% level at $1320.50.
A sustained move under $1306.80 will signal the presence of sellers. This could drive prices into an uptrending Gann angle at $1300.90. If this angle fails as support then look for the selling to possibly extend into the next uptrending Gann angle at $1292.90.
Basically, look for an upside bias to develop on a sustained move over $1307.90 and for a downside bias to develop on a sustained move under $1306.80.
James is a Florida-based technical analyst, market researcher, educator and trader with 35+ years of experience. He is an expert in the area of patterns, price and time analysis as it applies to futures, Forex, and stocks.