Gold Price Futures (GC) Technical Analysis – Big Challenge for Gold Bulls at $1899.20 Retracement Level

Gold futures are edging higher early Monday, hovering around its highest level since January 8, reached just last week, while the U.S. Dollar Index sits just above a nearly three month low also reached last week. U.S. Treasury yields are trading nearly flat.

Without any major economic reports on Monday, gold traders may have to look to the outside markets like cryptocurrencies and stocks, for direction.

At 02:49 GMT, August Comex gold futures are trading $1887.00, up $8.10 or +0.43%.

One concern for gold traders is Friday’s closing price reversal bottom in the June U.S. Dollar Index. If this chart pattern is confirmed by a move through 90.155 then sellers may return to the gold market.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart. A trade through $1893.20 will reaffirm the uptrend. A move through $1810.70 will change the main trend to down.

The minor trend is down. It changed to down on May 19 when sellers took out $1865.60. A trade through 1893.20 will change the minor trend to up. A move through $1854.40 will signal a resumption of the downtrend.

The main range is formed by the August 7, 2020 main top at $2120.00 and the March 8 main bottom at $1678.40. Its retracement zone at $1899.20 to $1951.30 is the next major upside target and potential resistance. Crossing over to the strong side of the Fibonacci level at $1951.30 will put the market in a bullish position.

The first minor range is $1810.70 to $1893.20. Its 50% level at $1852.00 is the nearest support.

The second minor range is $1756.80 to $1893.20. Its 50% level at $1823.90 is another potential downside target.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Forecast

The direction of the August Comex gold futures market on Monday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the major 50% level at $1899.20.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over $1899.20 will indicate the presence of buyers. If this move can create enough upside momentum then look for an eventual move into the major Fibonacci level at $1951.30.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under $1899.20 will signal the presence of sellers. If this move generates enough downside momentum then look for the selling to possibly extend into the first pivot at $1852.00. Since the main trend is up, buyers could come in on the first test of this level. If it fails then look for the selling to possibly continue into the next pivot at $1823.90. This is the last potential support before the main bottom at $1810.70.

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