Based on the early price action, the direction of the gold market the rest of the session is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the Fibonacci level at $1317.10.
Gold futures are trading higher on Wednesday in a volatile, two-sided trading session. Early in the session, the market was under pressure as rising U.S. Treasury yields made the U.S. Dollar a more attractive investment, leading investors to sell dollar-denominated gold.
At 1632 GMT, February Comex Gold futures are trading $1318.90, up $5.20 or +0.40%.
Gold flipped higher after a surge in the Japanese Yen drove investors into low-yielding, safe-haven assets. A drop in U.S. equity markets also drove investors into gold.
The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart. The trade through $1327.30 signal a resumption of the uptrend. If the upside momentum continues, we could see an eventual rally into the September 8 main top at $1365.80.
The major retracement zone is $1302.10 to $1317.10. This zone is controlling the near-term direction of the market. For the seventh straight day, the market is straddling the Fibonacci level at $1317.10. This is the key level to watch.
The short-term range is $1238.30 to $1328.60. If the selling pressure resumes, we could see an eventual move into its 50% level at $1283.50.
Based on the early price action, the direction of the gold market the rest of the session is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the Fibonacci level at $1317.10.
A sustained move over $1317.10 will indicate the presence of buyers. This could lead to a test of the long-term downtrending Gann angle at $1323.50. Overtaking this angle should lead to a retest of the intraday high at $1328.60.
Taking out $1328.60 with conviction could trigger an acceleration into the next long-term downtrending Gann angle at $1344.60. This is the last potential resistance angle before the $1365.80 main top.
A sustained move under $1317.10 will signal the presence of sellers. The first target is the steep uptrending Gann angle at $1314.60.
The angle at $1314.60 is the trigger point for an acceleration to the downside with the next target the 50% level at $1302.10. This is followed by 50% levels at $1290.20 and $1283.50.
James Hyerczyk is a U.S. based seasoned technical analyst and educator with over 40 years of experience in market analysis and trading, specializing in chart patterns and price movement. He is the author of two books on technical analysis and has a background in both futures and stock markets.