Based on the early price action, the direction of the gold market the rest of the session is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the Fibonacci level at $1317.10.
Gold futures are trading higher on Wednesday in a volatile, two-sided trading session. Early in the session, the market was under pressure as rising U.S. Treasury yields made the U.S. Dollar a more attractive investment, leading investors to sell dollar-denominated gold.
At 1632 GMT, February Comex Gold futures are trading $1318.90, up $5.20 or +0.40%.
Gold flipped higher after a surge in the Japanese Yen drove investors into low-yielding, safe-haven assets. A drop in U.S. equity markets also drove investors into gold.
The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart. The trade through $1327.30 signal a resumption of the uptrend. If the upside momentum continues, we could see an eventual rally into the September 8 main top at $1365.80.
The major retracement zone is $1302.10 to $1317.10. This zone is controlling the near-term direction of the market. For the seventh straight day, the market is straddling the Fibonacci level at $1317.10. This is the key level to watch.
The short-term range is $1238.30 to $1328.60. If the selling pressure resumes, we could see an eventual move into its 50% level at $1283.50.
Based on the early price action, the direction of the gold market the rest of the session is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the Fibonacci level at $1317.10.
A sustained move over $1317.10 will indicate the presence of buyers. This could lead to a test of the long-term downtrending Gann angle at $1323.50. Overtaking this angle should lead to a retest of the intraday high at $1328.60.
Taking out $1328.60 with conviction could trigger an acceleration into the next long-term downtrending Gann angle at $1344.60. This is the last potential resistance angle before the $1365.80 main top.
A sustained move under $1317.10 will signal the presence of sellers. The first target is the steep uptrending Gann angle at $1314.60.
The angle at $1314.60 is the trigger point for an acceleration to the downside with the next target the 50% level at $1302.10. This is followed by 50% levels at $1290.20 and $1283.50.
James is a Florida-based technical analyst, market researcher, educator and trader with 35+ years of experience. He is an expert in the area of patterns, price and time analysis as it applies to futures, Forex, and stocks.