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James Hyerczyk
Comex Gold

Gold is trading flat early Thursday as investors continue to wait for fresh news on Brexit and U.S.-China trade talks, while beginning to gear up for next week’s U.S. Federal Reserve interest rate decision. The market has been trading inside a trading range since October 11, the day President Trump announced phase one of a partial trade deal between the United States and China.

At 05:49 GMT, December Comex gold is trading $1495.60, down $0.10 or -0.01%.

Rising Treasury yields and increasing demand for risky assets have also been pressuring gold. However, a month-long sell-off in the U.S. Dollar has helped prop-up prices, while preventing a steep plunge.

Daily December Comex Gold

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart. A trade through $1478.00 will indicate the selling pressure is getting stronger. Taking out $1465.00 will reaffirm the downtrend.

A trade through $1522.30 will change the main trend to up. Taking out the next main top at $1525.80 will reaffirm the uptrend.

The intermediate range is $1412.10 to $1566.20. Its retracement zone at $1489.20 to $1471.00 is the first support area.

The main range is $1396.40 to $1566.20. Its retracement zone at $1481.30 to $1461.30 is the major support area.

The two zones combine to make $1489.20 to $1481.30 the key area to watch. This is followed by $1471.00 to $1461.30.

The short-term range is $1566.20 to $1465.00. Its retracement zone at $1515.60 to $1527.50 is the key upside target.


Daily Swing Chart Technical Forecast

Based on this week’s price action and the current price at $1495.60, the direction of the December Comex gold futures contract on Thursday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the 50% level at $1489.20.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over $1489.20 will indicate the presence of buyers. If this can attract enough buyers to trigger an acceleration to the upside then we could see a test of the 50% level at $1515.60.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under $1489.20 will signal the presence of sellers. The first downside target is the 50% level at $1481.30, followed by the October 11 low at $1478.00.

Taking out $1478.00 could extend the break into a Fibonacci level at $1471.00, followed by the main bottom at $1465.00 and another Fibonacci level at $1461.30.

The Fib level at $1461.30 is the trigger point for an acceleration to the downside with $1412.10 the next major target.

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