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James Hyerczyk

Gold futures rose on Friday as the U.S. Dollar fell against a basket of currencies on uncertainty surrounding the U.S. election outcome, with bets increasing for continued pandemic-led stimulus and accommodative monetary policy.

Democrat candidate Joe Biden edged closer to the White House as several close races flipped in his direction throughout the day. Traders also saw the prospects of a prompt stimulus package fading because of a divided Congress, driving expectations that the U.S. Federal Reserve might need to fill the gap.

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On Friday, December Comex gold settled at $1951.70, up $4.90 or +0.25%

Friday’s price action suggests that the current macro environment is supportive for gold regardless of the outcome of the election. Investors seem to feel that fiscal stimulus is coming over the short-run, but more importantly, monetary policy is likely to remain supportive because of the fragile economy.

Daily December Comex Gold

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart. A trade through $1983.80 will reaffirm the uptrend. The main trend will change to down on a move through $1859.20.

The minor trend is also up. A trade through $1881.80 will change the minor trend to down and shift momentum to the downside.

The main range is $2089.20 to $1851.00. Its retracement zone at $1970.10 to $1998.20 is the next upside target.

On the downside, the first support is a 50% level at $1917.40. This is followed by a main 50% level at $1889.70.


Daily Swing Chart Technical Forecast

The current rally is being driven by momentum. If this continues then look for the move to extend into the main 50% level at $1970.10. This is followed by a main top at $1983.80 and a resistance cluster at $1998.20 to $2001.20.

We could see sellers on the first test of $1970.10 to $1998.20. This will probably be profit-taking, but the rally could begin to accelerate again on a sustained move over $1998.20.

On the downside, with the main trend up, look for buyers on pullbacks into the 50% levels at $1917.40 and $1889.70.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.
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