The direction of the June Comex gold market on Wednesday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to $1746.90.
Gold futures are edging lower early Wednesday after touching its highest level since March 25 the previous session. On Tuesday, gold jumped as the U.S. Dollar fell to a two-week low against a basket of currencies as traders booked profits in the greenback after a strong March and as a drop in Treasury yields from recent peaks put pressure on the greenback while shaking out a few of the weaker shorts in the gold market.
At 04:33 GMT, June Comex gold futures are trading $1739.50, down $3.50 or -0.20%.
The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart. A trade through $1756.00 will change the main trend to up. A move through $1677.30 will signal a resumption of the downtrend, following the four-day counter-trend rally.
The market is currently trading inside a major retracement zone at $1788.50 to $1711.90. This zone is controlling the longer-term direction of the market.
The first short-term range is $1817.60 to $1676.20. Its 50% level at $1746.90 is the first upside target and potential resistance. This level may have stopped the rally on Tuesday.
The second short-term range is $1858.90 to $1676.20. Its 50% level at $1767.60 is the next potential upside target and resistance area.
The direction of the June Comex gold market on Wednesday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to $1746.90.
A sustained move under $1746.90 will indicate the presence of sellers. If this move creates enough downside momentum then look for a break into the major Fibonacci level at $1711.90. A move under this level could trigger an even further decline with the next support area $1677.30 – $1676.20.
A sustained move over $1746.90 will signal the presence of buyers. Taking out the main top at $1756.00 will change the main trend to up. This could create the upside momentum needed to challenge the 50% level at $1767.60. Sellers could come in on the first test of this level, but overtaking it could trigger a further rally into the major 50% level at $1788.50.
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James is a Florida-based technical analyst, market researcher, educator and trader with 35+ years of experience. He is an expert in the area of patterns, price and time analysis as it applies to futures, Forex, and stocks.