Gold Price Futures (GC) Technical Analysis – Rising U.S. Dollar Slowing Down Upside Momentum

Comex gold futures are trading higher on Thursday shortly after the regular session opening but the market is well off its high and threatening to takeout the opening. Why is this important? Because the market is up 7 days from its last main bottom, which puts it inside the window of time for a closing price reversal top.

This chart pattern won’t change the trend to down, but it could lead to a 2 to 3 day counter-trend break. Bullish traders should also be aware that the last three breaks from recent highs were about $38.00. So if you’re trading and you want to maximize gains then try to catch an early topping signal because the market is vulnerable to a $38.00 break.

Make sure you have an exit strategy or the market will give you one and usually it’s not a good one.

At 12:47 GMT, December Comex gold is trading $1904.60, up 12.00 or +0.63%. This is down from $1915.40.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart. The uptrend was confirmed earlier in the session when buyers took out yesterday’s high.

A trade through $1819.30 will change the main trend to down. This is unlikely, but due to the prolonged move up in terms of price and time, gold is vulnerable to a closing price reversal top especially since the September Dollar Index is flirting with a closing price reversal bottom.

The new minor range is $1819.30 to $1915.40. Its retracement zone at $1867.40 to $1856.00 is the nearest potential downside target.

The $38.00 balance point on the swing chart is $1877.40.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Forecast

Based on the early price action and the current price at $1904.60, the direction of the December Comex gold market the rest of the session on Thursday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to $1892.60.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over $1892.60 will indicate the presence of buyers. If this creates enough upside momentum then look for a retest of $1915.40. Taking out this level could trigger another breakout to the upside.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under $1892.60 will signal the presence of sellers. If this creates enough downside momentum, we could see a break into the swing chart target at $1877.40, followed by the minor 50% level at $1867.40 and the minor Fibonacci level at $1858.00.

Side Notes

A close under $1892.60 will form a daily closing price reversal top. If confirmed, this could trigger the start of a 2 to 3 day correction.