Gold Price Futures (GC) Technical Analysis – September 7, 2017 Forecast

December Comex Gold futures are trading flat early in the session on Thursday. The market continues to be underpinned by uncertainty over North Korea, but today there are added concerns over the European Central Bank’s monetary policy decision. Traders are mainly worried about comments from ECB President Mario Draghi.

A dovish Draghi could send the EUR/USD higher. This would underpin gold prices. A hawkish Draghi, or one that believes the currency is overvalued, would likely put pressure on the Euro and gold.

Technical Analysis

The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart. A trade through $1349.70 will signal a resumption of the uptrend. This could lead to a fast rally into the November 9, 2016 top at $1353.00. This price is a potential trigger point for an acceleration to the upside with the September 22, 2016 main top at $1363.80 the next major upside target.

The short-term range is $1302.30 to $1349.70. Its retracement zone at $1326.00 to $1320.40 is the primary downside target. Since the main trend is up, we could see a technical bounce on the first test of this zone.

Forecast

Based on the current price at $1339.70 (0448 GMT), the gold market could move in either direction.

If buyers come in to support the market then look for a rally into the steep uptrending angle at $1345.30. Crossing to the bullish side of this angle will mean the buying is getting stronger. This could create enough upside momentum to challenge $1349.70 and $1353.00 then eventually $1363.80.

If sellers come in then look for a drive into the next uptrending angle at $1334.30. The daily chart is wide open to the downside if this angle fails as support. If there is enough downside momentum then look for the selling to extend into $1326.00, $1320.40 then $1318.30.

Basically, if Draghi is dovish then look for a possible breakout over $1345.30. If Draghi is hawkish then look for a possible steep break under $1334.30.