Gold Price Futures (GC) Technical Analysis – Straddled Last Year’s Close at $1294.20 All Week

Gold futures settled higher on Friday after early session weakness, suggesting investors weren’t too impressed by the U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls report. The strong U.S. Dollar held the market in check throughout the session. However, gold rallied as U.S. Treasury yields reversed higher and stocks gave back most of their gains.

Friday’s U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls report beat on the headline number, but wages came in below expectations. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the U.S. economy added 196,000 jobs in March. Traders were looking for a reading of 172,000. February’s report was upwardly revised to 33,000 from 20,000.

The unemployment rate was unchanged at 3.8%, coming in as expected. Disappointing investors was hourly wage growth which rose only 3.2%, below the expected gain of 3.4%. Looking at it another way, average hourly earnings increased by four cents, or 0.1 percent in March after jumping 0.4 percent in February.

On Friday, June Comex gold futures settled at $1295.60, up $1.30 or +0.10%.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart. A trade through $1284.90 will signal a resumption of the downtrend. The main trend will change to up on a trade through $1330.80.

The minor trend is also down. A trade through $1299.00 will change the minor trend to up. This will also shift momentum to the upside.

On the downside, the nearest support zone is $1272.70 to $1253.00.

On the upside, the major resistance zone is $1299.80 to $1325.90.

The short-term range is $1330.80 to $1284.90. If the minor trend changes to up then look for the rally to possibly extend into its retracement zone at $1307.90 to $1313.30.

Traders also continue to straddle last year’s close at $1294.20. This may be acting like a longer-term pivot.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Forecast

Based on Friday’s price action, the direction of June Comex gold on Monday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to last year’s close at $1294.20.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over $1294.20 will indicate the presence of buyers. If this creates enough upside momentum then look for a surge into the minor top at $1299.00, followed by the 50% level at $1299.80.

Taking out $1299.80 will indicate the buying is getting stronger. This could trigger an acceleration to the upside with the next target the short-term retracement zone at $1307.90 to $1313.30.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under $1294.20 will signal the presence of sellers. If this attracts enough sellers then look for the weakness to extend into last week’s low at $1284.90. This is a potential trigger point for an acceleration into the main 50% level at $1272.70.