Gold Price Futures (GC) Technical Analysis – Strengthens Over $1364.40, Weakens Under $1347.30

April Comex Gold futures eased from a three-month high on Friday, but still managed to close higher for the session. Traders were reacting to an outside move in the U.S. Dollar Index which produced a higher close after touching a three-year low and failing to take out the December 16, 2014 main bottom at 88.067.

Daily Swing Chart Analysis

The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart. However, momentum is trending higher. A trade through $1370.50 will change the main trend to up. A move through $1309.00 will signal a resumption of the downtrend.

If $1370.50 is taken out with conviction, the rally is likely to extend into the September 6, 2016 main top at $1373.30, followed by the August 18, 2016 main top at $1382.20. This price is a potential trigger point for an acceleration into the August 2, 2016 main top at $1396.20.

The short-term range is $1309.00 to $1364.40. If there is a near-term correction then its retracement zone at $1336.70 to $1330.20 will become the primary downside target.

The main range is $1242.70 to $1370.50. Its retracement zone at $1306.60 to $1291.50 remains the major support.

Daily Swing Chart Forecast

Trader reaction to the outside move on Friday is likely to determine the direction of the market on Monday.

A trade through $1364.40 will indicate the presence of buyers. Overtaking $1370.50 will mean the buying is getting stronger. This move could create the upside momentum needed to challenge $1373.30, $1382.20 and $1396.20.

Taking out Friday’s low at $1347.30 will indicate the presence of sellers. This could lead to a full-short-term retracement into $1336.70 to $1330.20.

The direction of the gold market will continue to be influenced by the movement in the U.S. Dollar. Additional pressure could come from a reaction to rising U.S. Treasury yields and increased demand for higher risk assets.