Gold Price Futures (GC) Technical Analysis – Testing Long-Term Retracement Zone at $1899.20 to $1951.30

Gold futures surged to a 4-1/2 month high on Tuesday as the U.S. Dollar weakened against a basket of major currencies and Treasury yields continued to drop amid expectations that Federal Reserve policymakers will keep its monetary policy accommodative.

At 20:52 GMT, August Comex gold futures are trading $1902.70, up $16.00 or +0.85%.

U.S. Treasury yields fell on Tuesday, with the 10-year Treasury note yield hovering around 1.56%. In economic news, the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index fell slightly in May to 117.20. Traders were looking for a reading of 119.20. April was revised lower from 121.70 to 117.50.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart. The uptrend resumed when buyers took out the previous high at $1893.20. A trade through $1810.70 will change the main trend to down.

The minor trend reversed to up on the trade through $1893.20. A trade through $1854.40 will change the minor trend to down. This will shift momentum.

The main range is $2120.00 to $1678.40. On Tuesday, the futures contract closed on the strong side of its 50% level at $1899.20.

The minor range is $1810.70 to $1903.70. Its 50% level at $1857.20 is support. This level will move up as the market moves higher.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Forecast

Based on Monday’s price action, the direction of the August Comex gold futures contract early Tuesday will be determined by trader reaction to the long-term 50% level at $1899.20.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over $1899.20 will indicate the presence of buyers. If this move is able to generate enough upside momentum then look for the rally to possibly extend into the long-term Fibonacci level at $1951.30 over the near-term.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under $1899.20 will signal the presence of sellers. If this generates enough downside momentum then look for the selling to possibly extend into the minor pivot at $1857.20, followed closely by the minor bottom at $1854.40.

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