Gold Price Futures (GC) Technical Analysis – Trade Through $1281.90 Shifts Momentum to Upside

Gold futures are inching lower on Tuesday, pressured by a slightly firmer U.S. Dollar. Losses are likely being limited by a dip in U.S. Treasury yields. Gold prices edged higher the previous session, helped by a surge in crude oil prices after the Trump administration announced it was lifting the waivers granted on Iranian oil exports. This raised geopolitical concerns which increased gold’s appeal as a safe-haven asset.

At 04:26 GMT, June Comex gold futures are trading $1276.70, down $0.90 or -0.08%.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart. A trade through $1273.00 will signal a resumption of the downtrend. The main trend will change to up on a move through $1314.70. A change in trend to up is unlikely, but the market is down eight sessions from its last main top which puts it in the window of time for a closing price reversal bottom.

The minor trend is also down. A trade through $1281.90 will change the main trend to up. It will also shift momentum to the upside.

The main range is $1189.30 to $1356.00. Its retracement zone at $1272.70 to $1253.00 is the primary downside target and major support zone. This area is actually controlling the longer-term direction of the market.

The contract range is $1410.30 to $1189.30. Its retracement zone at $1299.80 to $1325.90 is major resistance. Holding below this zone will give the market a downside bias.

The short-term range is $1314.70 to $1273.00. Its 50% level comes in at $1293.90. This price forms a resistance cluster with the December 31 close at $1294.20.

The minor range is $1273.00 to $1281.90. Its 50% level or pivot at $1277.50 will dictate the direction of the market on Tuesday.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Forecast

Based on the early price action, the direction of the June Comex gold futures contract on Tuesday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the pivot at $1277.50.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over $1277.50 will indicate the presence of buyers. The first upside target is the minor top at $1281.90. Overtaking this top will shift momentum to the upside. If this creates enough upside momentum then we could see an acceleration to the upside with $1293.90 to $1294.20 the next target.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under $1277.50 will signal the presence of sellers. This could drive the market into last week’s low at $1273.00, followed by the major 50% level at $1272.70. This is the trigger point for an acceleration to the downside since the next major downside target comes in at $1253.00.

Closing Price Reversal Bottom Scenario

Taking out $1273.00 then closing higher for the session will produce a closing price reversal bottom. This could lead to a 2 to 3 day counter-trend rally.