Gold Price Futures (GC) Technical Analysis – Weak Close Puts Gold in Position to Change Trend to Down

April Comex Gold futures settled sharply lower on Friday in reaction to a stronger U.S. Dollar. The catalyst behind the price action was bullish U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls report that showed a robust rise in the headline figure and strong hourly wages. Rising U.S. Treasury yields also weighed on gold prices while a steep drop in higher risk assets may have provided some support.

Daily Swing Chart Analysis

The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart, but momentum has been trending lower since January 25.

A trade through $1329.10 will change the main trend to down.

A new minor top has formed at $1354.30. The uptrend will resume if buyers take out $1370.50.

The short-term range is $1329.10 to $1370.50. Its 50% level or pivot is $1349.80. This level is resistance. Look for a downside bias as long as the market remains under the pivot.

The main range is $1242.70 to $1370.50. Its retracement zone at $1306.60 to $1291.50 is the primary downside target.

Daily Swing Chart Forecast

Based on the close at $1337.30 and the downside momentum into the close, sellers may go after the swing bottom at $1329.10 early in the session on Monday. This is, of course, if the dollar and Treasury yields continue to rise.

The trend will change to down on a move through $1329.10. This could trigger an acceleration into the retracement zone at $1306.60.

If the sharp sell-off in the equity markets drives investors into safe haven assets then gold prices could firm with $1349.80 the next likely target.

The bias will shift to the upside over $1349.80, but the trigger point for an acceleration to the upside will probably be the minor top at $1354.30.