Gold Price Futures (GC) Technical Analysis – Weekly Chart Strengthens Over $1222.70, Weakens Under $1194.30

Gold futures closed lower last week with the selling pressure attributed to safe-haven buying of the U.S. Dollar and a jump in Treasury yields fueled by stronger-than-expected U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls data. The selling could have been worse, however.

Bullish speculators seem to believe that the Fed is moving closer to neutrality, which means the dollar is not likely to strengthen very much. Additionally, safe haven buyers are also taking positions in the Japanese Yen and Swiss Franc. If you trade the relationship between gold and the Dollar Index and your bullish gold, all you’re hoping for is a rally in the Euro.

Also if money speaks louder than words then gold could be heading lower because hedge funds and money managers increased their bearish positions in Comex gold to the biggest on record up until September 4.

Last week, December Comex Gold settled at $1200.40, down $6.30 or -0.52%.

Weekly Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is down according to the weekly swing chart. The market isn’t in any position to change the main trend to up. A trade through $1167.10 will signal a resumption of the downtrend.

The minor trend is also down. The minor trend will change to up on a move through $1278.20. This will also shift momentum to the upside.

The short-term range is $1167.10 to $1221.40. Its 50% level or pivot at $1194.30 is controlling the price action. Is has been providing support for four weeks.

The intermediate minor range is $1278.20 to $1167.10. Its 50% level at $1222.70 is the first upside target.

Another intermediate range is $1325.40 to $1167.10. Its 50% level at $1246.30 is the next upside target.

The main range is $1388.10 to $1167.10. Its retracement zone at $1277.60 to $1303.70 is the primary upside target.

Weekly Swing Chart Technical Forecast

Based on last week’s price action, the direction of the December Comex Gold market the rest of the week is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the short-term pivot at $1194.30.

A sustained move over $1194.30 will indicate the presence of strong counter-trend buyers. If this move creates enough upside momentum then look for buyers to go after the next 50% level at $1222.70. This is a potential trigger point for an acceleration to the upside with $1246.30 the first target.

A breakout over $1246.30 could fuel an even stronger rally with $1277.60 to $1278.20 the next target area.

A sustained move under $1194.30 will signal the presence of sellers. This could trigger a potential acceleration into $1167.10, followed by $1162.00.