Gold Price Futures (GC) Technical Analysis – Weekly Rally Strengthens Over $1347.40, Weakens Under $1329.30

Gold futures finished higher last week, while posting a dramatic two-sided trade. The movement in the U.S. Dollar was mostly behind the wild price action. It was primarily influence by volatility in U.S. Treasury yields.

The catalyst behind much of the price action last week was U.S.-China trade relations. Gold was said to have been given a boost when investors began dumping safe-haven dollar purchases after the news regarding the U.S. and China turned positive. The catalyst driving gold prices lower was less-than-dovish U.S. Federal Reserve Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes.

Last week, April Comex Gold settled at $1332.80, up $10.70 or +0.81%.

Weekly Technical Analysis

The main trend is up according to the weekly swing chart. A trade through $1349.80 will signal a resumption of the uptrend. The main trend will change to down on a trade through $1209.30. However, the market isn’t in a position to change the main trend to down. It does begin the week in the window of time for a closing price reversal top. If formed, this could trigger the start of a 2 to 3 week correction.

The minor trend is up. A trade through $1281.50 will change the minor trend to down. This will also shift momentum to the downside.

The main range is $1404.40 to $1182.70. Its retracement zone at $1319.70 to $1293.60 is support. Holding above this zone will give the market an upside bias.

Weekly Technical Forecast

Based on last week’s price action, the direction of the April Comex Gold futures contract this week is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the uptrending Gann angle at $1329.30.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over $1329.30 will indicate the presence of buyers. This uptrending Gann angle, moving up at a rate of $8.00 per week from the $1209.30 bottom, has been guiding the market higher for 15 weeks.

The first target is a downtrending Gann angle at $1347.40. This angle stopped the rally last week. Taking it out could trigger an acceleration to the upside with the next target angle dropping in at $1375.90. This is the last potential resistance angel before the $1399.00 and $1404.40 main tops.

Bearish Scenario

The inability to overcome $1347.40 will be the first sign of weakness. Taking out $1329.30 will indicate the selling is getting stronger. This could lead to a test of the Fibonacci level at $1319.70. This is the trigger point for an acceleration to the downside with the 50% level at $1293.60 the next major downside target.