Gold Technical Analysis
The gold market has rallied a bit during the trading session here on Friday, almost immediately after the non-farm payroll number came out much weaker than anticipated. The 50 day EMA is offering support, and I think ultimately the $3,300 level offers support as well. And if we can continue to see upward pressure, I think we will probably go looking to the $3,500 level. All things being equal, this is a market where every time we pull back, there should be buyers getting involved. And with that, I think you’re looking for a buy on the dip scenario.
The question now is whether or not we can actually break out to the upside, which I think ultimately does happen, but the question is, does it happen soon? I mean, there has been significant selling pressure every time we get to the $3,500 region. So short-term buying on the dip probably is the only trade you really have.
If we do somehow break above the $3,500 level, then it’s likely the gold could go much higher, perhaps reaching towards the $3,800 level, based on the measured move of the $300 range that we are in. This is a time of year that’s typically very range bound, but with non-farm payroll coming in as weakly as it did on Friday, then it makes quite a bit of sense that we could see plenty of volatility, but I do think really at this point in time, you’re watching the US dollar, you’re watching the interest rates and the like. Gold, I do believe, eventually breaks out to the upside. And I think most of what you’re seeing here is just working off the froth from the three year run higher. I have no interest in shorting this market anytime soon.
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