Gold Price Prediction – Gold Rallies as US Yield Curve Inverts

Gold prices rose on Wednesday as the US yield curve moved into inverted territory, making some believe the current business cycle is over. An inverted yield curve occurs when short-term interest rates are higher than long term interest rates. Chinese economic data was weaker than expected, which put additional pressure on global interest rates. The Euro moved lower, making allowing gold in Euros to break out to fresh highs. Riskier asset were under pressure, which drove investors into safe haven assets such as the yellow metal.

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Technical Analysis

Gold prices moved higher on Wednesday breaking out and closing at a fresh 6-year high Resistance is now seen near the March 2013 highs at 1,616. Support is seen near the 10-day moving average at 1,485. Short term momentum remains negative as the fast stochastic generated a crossover sell signal in overbought territory and continues to have a downward trajectory. The fast stochastic is flattening which is likely to lead to consolidation. The current reading on the fast stochastic is 85 above the overbought trigger level of 85 which could foreshadow a correction. Medium-term momentum is positive and the MACD histogram is printing in the black with and upward sloping trajectory which points to higher gold prices.

Chinese Economic Data was Weaker than Expected

China’s economic reports came in weaker than expected.  Industrial output slowed to a 17-year low at 4.8%, compared to expectations of 6%. Chinese Retail sales slowed from a 9.8% year over year in June to 7.6%.  Fixed asset investment declined to 5.7% from 5.8%.  What appears to be happening is the decline in Chinese economic data is beginning to weaken US manufacturing.