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Gold Price Prediction – Gold Rebounds Following Strong U.S. CPI

David Becker
Gold daily chart, July 11, 2018

Gold prices moved higher on Thursday rebounding from session lows, as stronger than expected U.S. CPI data buoyed prices of the yellow metal. Strong jobless claims, failed to buoy the greenback, which paved the way for higher gold prices. Resistance is seen near the 10-day moving average at 1,251.  Support is seen near the July lows at 1,238.  Momentum is neutral as the MACD (moving average convergence divergence) histogram prints in the black with a flat trajectory which points to consolidation.

U.S. headline CPI rose

U.S. headline CPI rose 0.1% in June with the core rate 0.2% higher slightly more than expectations. There were no revisions to May’s 0.2% gains overall and for the ex-food and energy component. The 12-month paces sped up with the headline rate rising to 2.9% year over year versus 2.8% year over year, matching the highest since February 2012. The core rate rose to a 2.3% year over year clip from 2.2% year over year. That matches the firmest since January 2017. Energy costs fell 0.3% on the month after the prior 0.9% gain. Services prices inched up 0.1% from 0.2%. Housing costs were unchanged from 0.2%, though the owners’ equivalent rent measure was up 0.3% from 0.2%. Food/beverage costs rose 0.2% from unchanged. Transportation prices increased 0.4%, the same as in May. Apparel prices declined 0.9% from flat. Medical care was up 0.4% from 0.2%. Education was 0.2% higher from 0.4%. Commodities were up 0.1% from 0.2%. Tobacco prices declined 0.4% after rising 0.4% previously.


U.S. initial jobless claims dropped

U.S. initial jobless claims dropped 18k to 214k in the week ended July 7, after rising 4k to 232k  in the June 30 week. The large drop likely resulted from seasonal adjustments around the July 4 holiday. The current level is modestly above the 209k late April measure that was the lowest since December 1969. Today’s number brings the 4-week moving average down to 223k from 224.75k. Continuing claims dipped 3k to 1,739k in the June 30 week following the 35k pop higher to 1,742k in the June 23 week.

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