Gold Price Prediction – Gold Slides on Stronger Dollar

Strong Chinese data lifts yields
David Becker
Gold

Gold prices continued to move lower on Friday, as US yields continued to rise and the dollar gained traction. The move-in yields has been the largest since President Trump took office. Stronger than expected data in the US that was released throughout the week, put pressure on yields, which paved the way for lower gold prices.

 

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Technical Analysis

Gold prices tumbled continued to drop on Friday following a large drop on Thursday. Short term resistance is seen near the 100-day moving average at 1,475, and then the 10-day moving average at 1,491. Support on the yellow metal is seen near the October lows at 1,426.  Short term momentum has turned negative. The fast stochastic generated a crossover sell signal. Medium-term momentum has turned negative as the MACD (moving average convergence divergence) index generated a crossover sell signal. This occurs as the MACD line (the 12-day moving average minus the 26-day moving average, crosses below the MACD signal line (the 9-day moving average of the MACD line). The MACD histogram is printing in the red with a downward sloping trajectory which points to lower prices.

Better than Expected Chinese Data Buoys Global Yields

On Friday Chinese authorities reported that China’s October trade data was a welcome upside surprise.  Both exports which came in at-0.9% year over year and imports which came in at -6.4% year over year came in better than expected.  The overall trade balance increased to $42.8 billion, around $2 billion higher than expected. Trade with the US continues to shrink but the rate of contraction has been decelerating.

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