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David Becker

Gold prices continued to rally hitting fresh all-time highs after rallying more than 5% last. The dollar continues to slide which helped buoy the price of the yellow metal. US Durable goods orders came in stronger than expected, but this did not help buoy yields but failed to lift the greenback. Prices broke through the all-time highs of 1,921 and closed the session at 1,945. Prices are now poised to test the 2,000 level.

Technical Analysis

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Gold prices broke out hitting fresh all-time highs and are poised to test higher levels. Support is seen near the prior highs at 1,921 and then the 10-day moving average near 1,848. Medium-term momentum has turned positive as the MACD (moving average convergence divergence) histogram is printing in the black with an upward sloping trajectory points to higher prices. Short-term momentum has turned negative as the fast stochastic generated a crossover sell signal. The fast-stochastic is printing a reading of 95 above the overbought trigger level of 80, which could foreshadow a correction. The RSI also surged higher reflecting accelerating positive momentum and is printing a reading of 85, above the overbought trigger level of 70 which could foreshadow a correction.


Durable Goods Orders

Durable goods orders increased 7.3% in June after rebounding 15.1% in May. Durable goods orders were driven by robust demand for motor vehicles, which accelerated 85.7% after increasing 28.8% in May. That offset a 462.3% plunge in civilian aircraft orders, leading to a 20% rise in orders for transportation equipment. Motor vehicles have a bigger weighting in the transportation category. Orders for transportation equipment surged 78.9% in May. Orders for non-defense capital goods excluding aircraft, a closely watched proxy for business spending plans, jumped 3.3% last month. That was the biggest increase in these so-called core capital goods orders since July 2018 and followed a 1.6% rise in May.

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