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David Becker
US Dollar and Gold


Gold prices moved higher continuing to break out and hitting a fresh 6-year high. Prices closed at 1,434 and are poised to test the 2019 intraday highs at 1,439. Prices rallied as investors looked to alternative currencies other than the dollar. US jobless claims rose in line with expectations while the Fed Beige book was relatively upbeat.

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Technical Analysis

Gold prices broke out to a fresh 6-year high and should continue to experience upward positive momentum. Prices will likely test the July 2019 highs at 1,439 and the next target resistance level is the May 2013 highs at 1,488. A break of that level would lead to a test of the March 2013 highs at 1,618. Support is seen near the 10-day moving average at 1,411. Short term momentum has turned positive as the fast stochastic generated a crossover buy signal. Medium term negative momentum is decelerating as the MACD (moving average convergence divergence) histogram prints in the red with a rising trajectory which points to consolidation. The RSI (relative strength index) is on the rise reflecting accelerating positive momentum. The current reading of 67, is on the upper end of the neutral range.


Jobless Claims Rise in Line with Expectations

US jobless claims rose 8,000 to  216,000 for the week ended July 13, according to the Labor Department. Data for the prior week was revised to show 1,000 fewer applications received than previously reported. Last week’s increase in claims was in line with expectations. The four-week moving average of initial claims, dipped 250 to 218,750 last week.

The Beige Book ahead of the July 31 FOMC meeting was fairly upbeat.  The economy expanded at a modest pace with little change from the previous report.  It added that employment also grew at a modest pace with continued modest growth expected.  The only negative was concern about the negative impact of trade uncertainty.


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