Gold Price Prediction – Prices Rise as the Dollar Drop on Weak Jobs Data

Gold prices surged higher on Friday as the dollar declined and yields tumbled. The markets were surprised that hiring was worse than expected in April. Nonfarm payrolls are increasing by a much less than expected 266,000, and the unemployment rate rose to 6.1% amid an escalating shortage of available workers.

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Technical analysis

Gold prices moved higher on Friday continuing to break out above trend line resistance. Support is now seen near former resistance, a downward sloping trend line near 1,799. Target resistance is seen near the Fibonacci retracement level of 50.0%, which is seen near 1,876. Additional support is seen near the 10-day moving average at 1,788 and then the 50-day moving average at 1,745. The 10-day moving average has crossed above the 50-day moving average, meaning that a short-term uptrend is now in place. Short-term momentum has turned positive as the fast stochastic generated a crossover buy signal. Medium-term momentum has turned positive as the MACD (moving average convergence divergence) index generated a crossover buy signal. This occurs when the MACD line (the 12-day moving average minus the 26-day moving average) crosses above the MACD signal line (the 9-day moving average of the MACD line).

Payrolls Rise Less than Expected

Nonfarm payrolls are increasing by a much less than expected 266,000, and the unemployment rate rose to 6.1% amid an escalating shortage of available workers. Expectations were for 1 million new jobs and an unemployment rate of 5.8%. There were also revisions to the prior months that added insult to injury. March’s estimated total of 916,000 initially was revised down to 770,000, though February saw an upward revision to 536,000 from 468,000.