Gold Price Prediction – Prices Trade Sideways, as Momentum Stalls

Geopolitical issues rise as Turkey moves into Syria
David Becker
Pile of gold bars or ingots on a dark background

Gold prices edged lower on Wednesday as the dollar moved higher and US yields climbed. Geopolitical risk was on trader’s minds as Press reports confirm that Turkish troops have begun crossing into Northern Syria.  Yields continue to be driven by Fed Chair Powell’s comments that the Fed would gain begin to purchase bonds to expand the FOMC’s balance sheet.  Riskier assets were buoyed as trade issues were calmed by Chinese comments.


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Technical Analysis

Gold prices were nearly unchanged on Wednesday forming a doji day. This occurs when the open and the close are at the same level, reflecting indecision. Prices remain above short term support near the 10-day moving average at 1,496. Additional support is seen near an upward sloping trend line that comes in near 1,468. Resistance is seen near a downward sloping trend line that comes in near 1,518. Short term momentum has whipsawed and now points to consolidation. Medium-term momentum is beginning to consolidate. The MACD histogram is printing near the zero-index line with a flat trajectory which points to consolidation, but also a potential crossover buy signal is about to occur. Prices continue to trade sideways as momentum has nearly stalled. The trend in the market has also turned into consolidation, which could remain in place until the Fed decision.

Turkish Troops Cross into Syria

Turkish troops have begun crossing into Northern Syria.  A direct military operation in Syria and the likely clashes with Kurdish forces, which are aligned with the US will add another layer of uncertainty for market participants.  Turkish government signed an agreement with Russia to enable financial-sector firms to use a Russian payment system alternative to SWIFT. The agreement will allow the two sides to use local currency in the mutual settlement.

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