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Gold Rebounds as Momentum Turns Positive

By: 
David Becker
Gold Bars and Dollar

Gold prices rebounded but close well off session highs forming a doji day which occurs when the open and close are at the same level. This is a sign of

Gold prices rebounded but close well off session highs forming a doji day which occurs when the open and close are at the same level. This is a sign of indecision. Softer than expected inflation including Friday’s U.S. import data took some of the luster out of the dollar, paving the way for higher gold prices. Support on the yellow metal is seen near the 10-day moving average at 1,313.  Resistance is seen near the May highs at 1,326 and then the April highs at 1,365. Momentum has turned positive as the MACD (moving average convergence divergence) index generated a crossover buy signal. This occurs as the MACD line (the 12-day moving average minus the 26-day moving average) crosses above the MACD signal line (the 9-day moving average of the MACD line).

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U.S. import prices increased

U.S. import prices increased 0.3% in April, while export prices rose 0.6%. The flat reading on March import prices was revised down to -0.2% and February was bumped to 0.2% from 0.3%. The 0.3% March export price gain was not revised nor was February’s 0.2%. On a 12-month basis import prices are up 3.3% year over year, unchanged from March which was revised from 3.6% year over year. The 12-month export price index rose to a 3.8% year over year pace from 3.4% year over year.

For April imports, petroleum prices bounced 1.6% versus the prior 2.2% decline which was revised from -1.3%. Excluding petroleum, prices were up 0.1% from unchanged which was revised from 0.1%. Import prices with China fell 0.1% after a 0.2% gain and were up 0.6% with Canada versus -0.4%. For export prices, agricultural price declined 1.2% after jumping 3.2% previously.

Canada employment dipped

Canada employment dipped 1.1k in April after the 32.3k gain in March, coming in contrary to expectations for an increase the median was +20.5k. But full time jobs grew 28.8k in April after the 68.8k surge in March. Part time jobs fell 30.0k after a 35.9k contraction in March. The unemployment rate was 5.8%, holding at the 40-year low of 5.8% seen in March.

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About the Author

David Becker focuses his attention on various consulting and portfolio management activities at Fortuity LLC, where he currently provides oversight for a multimillion-dollar portfolio consisting of commodities, debt, equities, real estate, and more.

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