Gold, Silver, Copper Analysis: XAU/USD’s Bearish Slant Below Key Pivot

Arslan Ali

Anticipation of Fed's policy shift heightens, potentially enhancing XAU/USD value amid a bearish spot market outlook.

Metals Recap

In this article:

Key Insights

Quick Fundamental Outlook

Several Federal Reserve representatives, such as Governor Waller and Chairman Powell, are scheduled to speak this week, potentially providing clarity on whether the Fed will maintain or halt its contractionary monetary policy, which has featured interest rate increases and balance sheet reductions.

Despite escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and Ukraine, market sentiment is predominantly influenced by the anticipation that the Fed may have concluded its cycle of raising rates.

This expected pause in the Fed’s tightening regime could lessen the appeal of yield-bearing assets like the U.S. dollar, potentially benefiting non-yielding commodities like gold and silver by making them more attractive to investors seeking safe-haven assets.

Copper could also see an indirect impact, as easing monetary policy may boost economic growth prospects and, consequently, demand for industrial metals.

Gold Prices Forecast

GOLD - Chart
GOLD – Chart

In today’s technical analysis of gold for November 8, the precious metal stands at $1,963.91, experiencing a modest decline of 0.27%. Over the past 24 hours, gold has been trading within a 4-hour chart framework that has seen a sideways channel breakout below the pivot point of $1,976, suggesting a bearish bias.

Key resistance levels are currently set at $1,995, $2,009, and $2,029. On the support side, $1,960 holds as the immediate floor, followed by further cushions at $1,945 and $1,928. The Relative Strength Index is at 34, indicating a bearish sentiment as it falls below the central 50 mark, not yet oversold but certainly leaning away from bullish territory.

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator presents a bearish trend with its current values, and the price of gold is slightly below the 50-Day Exponential Moving Average of $1,978, reinforcing the short-term bearish outlook.

Overall, the technical outlook for gold is bearish as long as it remains below $1,976. Investors may anticipate a test of lower support levels unless a reversal above this threshold materializes, prompting a reassessment of the short-term forecast.

Silver Prices Forecast

Silver - Chart
Silver – Chart

Silver’s technical outlook for November 8 shows the metal trading at $22.37, down 1.13% within the last 24 hours, according to the 4-hour chart. The pivot point stands at $22.56, with immediate resistance levels at $22.93, $23.27, and $23.61, suggesting areas of potential reversal if upward momentum resumes.

Support is positioned at $22.23, $21.98, and $21.74, marking critical zones where buyers may re-emerge.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 31 signals a bearish sentiment, edging close to the oversold threshold. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) trends bearishly as well, further supporting the short-term downtrend.

Moreover, the price is currently below the 50-Day Exponential Moving Average of $22.83, aligning with the bearish perspective.

Chart patterns reveal a descending triangle breakout below $22.55, typically considered a bearish signal. Therefore, the overall trend for silver is bearish below the crucial level of $22.50. The short-term forecast anticipates silver to test further support levels unless a pivot above $22.50 indicates a shift in momentum.

Copper Prices Forecast

Copper - Chart
Copper – Chart

Copper’s trading session on November 8 reflects a marginal downtick, with prices at $3.70930, a 0.19% decrease over the past 24 hours as per the 4-hour chart. The metal is hovering around a pivot point of $3.69, with resistance levels at $3.74, $3.78, and $3.82 suggesting potential areas for price reversals if buying pressure increases. Conversely, support levels are identified at $3.66, $3.63, and $3.61, which may serve as floors for price dips.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is neutral at 50, providing no clear directional bias. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) shows a negligible bearish crossover, which may not be decisive enough to suggest a strong downward trend. Copper’s price action in relation to the 50-day Exponential Moving Average, also at $3.69, adds to the neutral stance, indicating a potential pivot for short-term trend direction.

An upward channel observed in the chart patterns aligns with a bullish sentiment, indicating a potential continuation of the buying trend if prices maintain above the $3.69 threshold. Therefore, the overall trend can be considered bullish above this point. Looking ahead, if copper sustains its foothold above the pivot, it may test subsequent resistance levels in the near term.

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About the Author

Arslan, a webinar speaker and derivatives analyst, has an MBA in Finance and MPhil in Behavioral Finance. He guides financial analysis, trading, and cryptocurrency forecasting. Expert in trading psychology and sentiment.

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