Gold vs. Bitcoin: BTC Breakout Looms as XAUUSD Builds Bullish Compression

ReserveOne’s entry into the crypto market through a $1 billion SPAC deal signals growing institutional confidence in digital assets. Bitcoin (BTC) is likely to gain greater legitimacy, backed by prominent figures from Wall Street, Tether, and the US government. The company plans to manage a diversified crypto portfolio. This includes assets like Bitcoin. It will align the portfolio with a “US strategic crypto reserve.” This strategy may boost demand and support long-term holding behavior. The move toward regulated, equity-based exposure adds further appeal. It could attract traditional investors. These investors were previously hesitant to enter the volatile cryptocurrency market directly.

Moreover, the involvement of heavyweight investors like Blockchain and Kraken, along with ReserveOne’s plans for institutional staking, suggests broader utility and liquidity for Bitcoin. These developments could reduce the available supply on exchanges, adding upward pressure on prices.

The deal’s expected closure by Q4 2025 aligns with growing anticipation around crypto ETFs and upcoming halving events. This combination sets the stage for a potential breakout. Bitcoin may see a surge in interest as ReserveOne mirrors MicroStrategy’s success but offers broader diversification and greater regulatory appeal.

Bitcoin to Gold Ratio Breakout Nears as XAUUSD Stalls Below $3,500

The Bitcoin-to-Gold ratio shows that it is forming a cup and handle pattern, with the price currently trading at the edge of this formation. A break above the 42 level would likely initiate a strong move in the ratio toward 110. This upside breakout could push Bitcoin prices above $115,000 and potentially trigger a strong surge toward the $140,000 region.

The bullish price action in the Bitcoin-to-Gold ratio is further highlighted in the weekly chart below, which shows that the ratio is currently attempting a breakout above the arc. This move is likely to trigger an upward trend in the ratio. A breakout above 42 would likely initiate a strong upside move.

Bitcoin Technical Analysis

BTC Weekly: Consolidation Below $115K Hints at Major Breakout

The weekly chart for Bitcoin shows that the price is consolidating below the $115,000 region. This area is considered a key point of resistance for the Bitcoin network. The chart highlights an orange circle, indicating where the price previously formed a strong top.

However, if the price breaks above $115,000 this time, it could signal the start of a strong long-term uptrend. The RSI remains above the 60 level, suggesting that further upside is likely. A long-term decline characterizes the current formation and appears to be influenced by the expansion of a cup pattern.

BTC Daily: Cup Expansion Point to $140K Target

The daily Bitcoin chart below also confirms the bullish price action. Specifically, the chart shows that the price is consolidating above the $100,000 level. Additionally, it is approaching the red-dotted trendline resistance near the $115,000 region.

A break above this red-dotted trendline would likely trigger a strong move. In that case, the next target is the $140,000 level, which marks the first significant milestone of this bullish formation. Furthermore, the emergence of an ascending broadening wedge pattern indicates increasing volatility and supports the potential for a significant breakout.

Additionally, the daily chart below shows strong bullish price action, indicating a potential upside breakout. The formation of a double bottom further suggests that the price is likely to move higher. If the breakout occurs, it could target the $140,000 level in Bitcoin prices.

Gold Technical Analysis

The weekly chart for spot gold (XAUUSD) shows that the price is consolidating between the $3,000 and $3,500 regions. Despite this consolidation, the overall outlook remains strongly bullish. A correction toward the $3,000 area will likely present a strong buying opportunity. This could drive prices above the $3,500 level.

An inverted head and shoulders pattern emerged from 2020 to 2024. This pattern indicates strong bullish momentum. Moreover, the RSI is dropping from the extremely overbought region, suggesting a bullish consolidation. The correction in gold prices will offer a good buying opportunity for long-term investors.