Gold vs. Bitcoin: BTC Builds Momentum Above $100K as XAUUSD Enters Correction Phase

Bitcoin (BTC) enters a critical week as traders await major catalysts. The Federal Reserve will announce its rate decision on Wednesday. Markets expect rates to remain in the 4.25%–4.50% range. However, Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s speech may signal future policy direction. A dovish tone could trigger strong rallies in Bitcoin and gold (XAUUSD).

Meanwhile, US President Donald Trump’s reciprocal tariffs are set to take effect on Friday. These geopolitical moves may influence investor sentiment across all risk assets. Gold and Bitcoin could react sharply depending on the market’s perception of risk and inflation.

Despite these macro triggers, Bitcoin’s volatility has steadily declined. The chart below shows that annualised volatility, which exceeded 100% in past cycles, now sits below 30% as of July 2025. This shift reflects broader adoption, tighter supply, and increased institutional flows for Bitcoin. On the other hand, gold has shown greater sensitivity to geopolitical shocks and dollar movements.

Gold-to-Bitcoin Ratio Near Breakdown

The Gold-to-Bitcoin ratio has been declining since hitting strong resistance at 0.40 in April 2025. The ratio continued to fall through May, June, and July, and is now approaching key support near the 0.026 area. A break below this level would signal further downside in the ratio, confirming a strong bullish trend for Bitcoin. Notably, Bitcoin has already broken above the $115,000 resistance, reinforcing its bullish momentum and suggesting further upside.

Bitcoin Technical Analysis: Breakout Patterns Point to $140K

BTC Consolidation: Bullish Strength or Pause Before Surge?

The weekly chart for Bitcoin shows a breakout above the $105,000 to $115,000 resistance zone, followed by consolidation above that level. This consolidation signals strength. As long as Bitcoin holds above the key $100,000 support, the next rally could push prices toward the $140,000 region. Historically, the emergence of strong bullish price action has led to significant upside moves. Any correction from current levels is likely to remain supported, setting the stage for the next leg higher.

Volatility Declines as BTC Prepares for Next Move

The chart below shows increasing volatility, highlighted by a broadening wedge and multiple strong price swings. However, the formation of an inverted head and shoulders pattern with a breakout above $110,000 signals a bullish trend. BTC is now consolidating in a tight range, and as long as it holds above the $110,000 support, the next move is likely to be higher.

Gold Technical Analysis – Repeated Rejection at $3,450 Signals Risk

Bearish Hammer: Will XAUUSD Break Below $3,250?

Spot gold formed a bearish hammer last week near the $3,450 resistance, signalling weakness. Since peaking at $3,500 in April 2025, gold has traded sideways. Therefore, the bearish hammer could confirm a broader consolidation. The repeated failures to break above $3,450 increase the risk of a downside move.

Gold may correct lower to find support before attempting a breakout above $3,500. A drop below $3,250 would confirm weakness and open the door to a decline toward the key long-term support at $3,000. Buyers may step in at that level to target higher levels.

XAUUSD Long-Term Patterns Suggest Bullish Setup Toward $4,000

The weekly chart shows long-term price action in spot gold. It highlights a symmetrical broadening wedge followed by an ascending triangle pattern. The breakout from these patterns triggered a strong rally. Gold surged above $2,000 in 2024 and reached a record high near $3,500.

The recent consolidation below $3,500 does not indicate a peak. Instead, it signals bullish consolidation. This pattern suggests that any pullback will likely find support. Investors may watch for a dip to enter, anticipating a rally toward the $4,000 level.