Gold vs. Bitcoin: BTC Eyes New Highs, Can XAUUSD Break Above $3,500?

Bitcoin (BTC) trades within a tight range between $107,000 and $110,000 after pulling back from its all-time high of $112,000. Despite muted growth in broader metrics, strong whale and institutional activity have supported the uptrend. US spot Bitcoin ETFs saw over $2.9 billion in inflows last week, reflecting strong investor interest.

The number of whales holding over 1,000 BTC has increased to 1,455, while long-term holders have led the accumulation. Additionally, exchange reserves fell to 14.9% of the total supply, marking the lowest level since December 2022. Whales withdrew more than 124,000 BTC, reducing sell-side pressure and reinforcing long-term commitment.

Despite the strong development in Bitcoin prices, the gold (XAUUSD) market remains in consolidation between $3,200 and $3,500. However, this consolidation forms a positive price structure, indicating the potential for a strong long-term rally. The ratio between gold and Bitcoin has supported long-term bullish trends in both assets.

Bitcoin to Gold Ratio Signals Long-Term Breakout Potential

The Bitcoin-to-Gold ratio shows that the ratio is currently trading at a key decision point. The intersection of a long-term trend line and a curved line determines this decision point. The curve is drawn from 2012 to 2025, and acted as resistance during major Bitcoin peaks in 2013, 2017, and 2021.

Each time Bitcoin reached a peak, the ratio declined. However, the upward trend line drawn from the June 2013 low to the March 2025 low has continued to hold.
The intersection of this trend line and the curved resistance marks the critical decision area where the ratio now trades. Based on the strong price action in Bitcoin, a break above the 38 level in the Bitcoin-to-Gold ratio would signal the potential for a major upward surge in Bitcoin prices.

Gold to Bitcoin Ratio Highlights Bitcoin’s Bullish Reversal

Similarly, the Gold-to-Bitcoin ratio tells the same story. The ratio has been trading within a descending channel, reflecting a strong inverse correlation between the two assets. It is found that, when the ratio peaks, Bitcoin typically bottoms, and gold tends to rally.

This pattern repeated in April 2025 when the ratio peaked, marking a significant bottom in Bitcoin, which then broke record levels.

As May comes to a close in two days, the formation of a bearish monthly candle suggests that the ratio may continue to move lower. A break below 0.026 would confirm a technical breakdown in the ratio, indicating a strong surge in Bitcoin prices from a technical perspective.

BTC Tests Resistance Zone, Eyes New Highs

The price of Bitcoin is trading within a strong resistance area between $105,000 and $110,000. The emergence of a bullish hammer near the 50 SMA, followed by a rebound, indicates continued bullish momentum.

A break above $115,000 would signal a strong surge in Bitcoin prices and would open the door toward the $250,000 region. The $250,000 level remains the long-term target for Bitcoin.

XAUUSD Holds Range and Prepares for Break Above $3,500

The weekly chart for spot gold shows that the price is consolidating between the $3,200 and $3,500 area. As long as this range holds, the price will likely continue sideways before the next move. Following the breakout from the inverted head and shoulders pattern in 2024, gold has entered repeated consolidation phases before each upward move.

The consolidations in April–May 2024 and November–December 2024 are key examples, as shown in the chart below. Similarly, a strong upward rally will likely follow after the consolidation below $3,500. However, the key support at $3,000 must hold for gold to remain bullish.

The above discussion is further supported by the weekly chart below, which shows the formation of an ascending channel. The price broke out of the ascending channel in April 2025 and entered the extension zone, reaching resistance around the $3,500 region.

The subsequent correction from $3,500 established strong support at $3,120, and the price is now consolidating between the $3,200 and $3,500 range. If gold resumes its upward momentum, the $3,500 to $3,600 region will again act as a strong resistance zone. A break above $3,500 will open the door for $4,000 level.