Gold (XAU/USD) Price Forecast: 20-Day Support Holds – Weekly Breakouts Set to Confirm

Wednesday’s Breakout Advance

Gold extended its recovery on Wednesday to a high of $4,212, following the first significant pullback since October’s $4,381 record peak. The 20-day average, recently reclaimed, held firm as support with today’s $4,098 low mirroring Tuesday’s, while price is poised to close above two ascending top channel lines for confirmed breakout.

Channel and Range Confirmation

Both channel lines—previously resistance—were recovered today, signaling improving demand. A prior tight three-day range top at $4,161 was decisively cleared, opening the path for continuation higher and potential new trend highs.

Measured Upside Target

A higher swing low at $3,886 establishes the base for a 127.2% Fibonacci extension targeting $4,516 should the 2025 high fall. The 10-day average has turned higher after declining during the correction, now providing short-term dynamic support.

Weekly Breakout Signals

Two weekly breakouts fired this week: first from last week’s inside week, then above the two-week high. Current momentum favors confirmation via a weekly close above the $4,109 high. The rising 10-week moving average has anchored support over recent weeks.

Underlying Trend Strength

The swift breakout above the top channel lines marks the second such event after mid-October’s initial surge. The rising 50-day average at $3,915 went untested during the pullback — a bullish sign that buyers refused to wait for deeper support.

Key Support Levels

Primary near-term support sits at the sideways 20-day average near $4,081. The 10-day average, already curling upward, reinforces short-term bullish momentum.

Outlook

Gold’s rapid channel recapture and clearance of $4,161 place bulls in control toward $4,381 and the $4,516 Fibonacci target. The 20-day at $4,081 and rising 50-day at $3,915 define the key defense zones. Weekly confirmation above $4,109 would solidify the next leg higher; only failure back below the 20-day would delay the advance.

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