Gold (XAU/USD) Price Forecast: $4,149 Tests Dual Channel Resistance – Breakout Above $4,161 Key

Tuesday’s Action

Gold pushed to a 13-day high of $4,149 on Tuesday before intraday sellers emerged, leaving a tight range and a low of $4,097 at writing. Price remains on track for a second straight close above the 20-day average at $4,080—significant after that line failed as support on October 27.

20-Day Reclaim Confirmed

Monday’s strong green candle off the 10-day average reclaimed the 20-day line, with yesterday’s close confirming the move. The 10-day itself has now flipped from dynamic resistance (post-October 21 breakdown) to confirmed support, handing short-term control back to buyers unless the price falls and stays below the 20-day.

Immediate Resistance Cluster

Resistance materialized near the prior minor consolidation zone beneath the $4,381 peak and directly at the convergence of two ascending channel top lines (short-term black, longer-term blue). A continuation breakout triggers above the October 22 high and three-day tight range top; sustained trade above $4,161 would confirm a clean break of both channel lines.

Bounce Structure

The rally from the $3,886 swing low has unfolded with support well above the rising 50-day average at $3,902 and short of the 50% retracement—bullish evidence that the pullback may have already run its course. Rising key support continues to strengthen the underlying trend.

Monthly Chart Concern

October closed with a potential shooting star on the monthly chart. The bearish pattern only confirms, however, on a drop below October’s $3,819 low. Until then, an inside November month remains in play and worth monitoring.

Outlook

Buyers hold the near-term edge with the 20-day reclaimed and 10-day supporting. A decisive push above $4,161 validates continuation toward higher channel objectives. Failure to hold the 20-day reopens the risk of a second leg down toward the 50-day and $3,902 area. Watch the monthly low at $3,819—violation there would confirm the October shooting star and shift the intermediate bias bearish.

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