Gold (XAU/USD) Price Forecast: Bull Pennant Tightens – $4,245 Breakout Key

Tuesday’s Pennant Action

Gold pushed to a six-day high of $4,159 on Tuesday, producing the first full range above the 10-day average ($4,105) in eight sessions with a low at $4,110. The move occurred within a developing bull pennant (small triangle) consolidation at the upper end of the recent advance, resulting in muted follow-through and a narrow range day in progress.

Resistance Cluster

The daily high respected the long-term rising top channel line (blue) that has repeatedly capped moves. Just overhead, a separate downtrend line intersects a more recent top channel line (black), creating a tight resistance band that further defines the upper pennant boundary. It looks likely that further advances in the short-term may be capped around $4,185, the intersection of the two lines.

20-Day and Deeper Support

The 20-day average at $4,057 has begun turning higher after multiple failed attempts to break below it. Yesterday’s $4,040 low sparked a six-day breakout with a strong close near highs. The 20-day is nearing convergence with the internal uptrend line that defines near-term dynamic support and the lower boundary of the pennant; failure there directs focus to the rising 50-day average at $3,999, untested since the August rally began.

Pennant Breakout Levels

An upside pennant breakout requires a sustained advance above the recent lower swing high at $4,245. Repeated tests of the upper downtrend line that produce a lower swing high would instead lower the bullish trigger level. But that hasn’t happened yet.

Apex Decision Imminent

Gold is rapidly approaching the pennant apex, forcing expanded volatility soon. A downside break first shows on a drop below Monday’s $4,040 low, with confirmation beneath Friday’s $4,022 low. Momentum on any breakdown would remain limited as long as the 50-day average acts as dynamic support.

Outlook

The bull pennant is coiling into its apex with resistance directly overhead and the 20-day/50-day complex below. A decisive push above $4,245 validates continuation higher; failure to clear the upper trend lines keeps risk of a downside break toward $4,040–$4,022, then the 50-day near $3,999. Until a clean directional trigger fires, expect continued tight range trading.

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