Gold (XAU/USD) Price Forecast: Bull Structure Holds – $4,356 Measured Move in Play

Gradual Upside Momentum

Gold may be starting to show improved demand as it began to slowly rise from recent lows on Wednesday, reaching a three-day high of $4,239 with a higher daily high and higher low. The breakout will confirm on a daily close above Tuesday’s high of $4,221. Moreover, the 10-day average at $4,206 currently was reclaimed with a likely daily close above it today, confirming the breakout. Both today’s low and Tuesday’s low found support near the short-term uptrend line, giving additional evidence that buyers may be starting to reassert control.

Bull Trend Structure Intact

If gold remains above the 20-day average, now at $4,154, the bull trend structure remains in place and suggests an upside continuation. Last week’s high of $4,264 is the key resistance level to break to show that the buyers are getting more aggressive and it signals a continuation of the rally that began from the October swing low. Although the 20-day average broke during the pullback, the 50-day average was not reached, reflecting relatively strong demand. Similarly, since low the 50-day line has done a good job of tracking potential dynamic support without price having touched it.

Downside Contingency Levels

In the event that gold gets bearish with a drop below the 20-day average, the 50-day average, now at $4,097, is the next key dynamic support area. Since it has not been tested as support since the August breakout, support is anticipated to be seen around the average if it is approached. Concurrently, if gold breaks below it, that would be a bearish sign and put the near-term uptrend at risk of a deeper correction.

Channel Context Provides Strength

Gold broke out of two rising trend channels in October before failing to sustain the breakout with a drop back into the channels. However, the recent correction has been contained largely near the top of the channels. That is a sign of strength. At the same time, if selling from the failed breakout reasserts itself with a drop below the 50-day average, the rising centerline of the shorter channel becomes a potential target. Currently, the line has converged with a 50% retracement level at $3,825.

Upside Objectives

On the upside, a sustained breakout above $4,264 swing high targets the completion of an initial measured move target at $4,356. The trend high at $4,381 is the next upside target from there, followed by a 127.2% measured move projection at $4,454.

Outlook

Gold’s measured recovery and successful 10-day reclaim keep the larger bull trend dominant as long as the 20-day average holds. Clearance of $4,264 unlocks $4,356–$4,381 minimum; any weakness finds initial defense at the 50-day line, with the channel top and centerline confluence as the ultimate backstop before deeper risk emerges.

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