Gold (XAU/USD) Price Forecast: Closes Above 10-Day MA – First Since October 20

Friday’s Consolidation Pattern

Gold extended its tight range Friday, pushing to a four-day high of $4,027 before settling back. A higher low formed at $3,974, and while the session remains positive at writing, gold trades in the lower half of the narrow daily range—showing little conviction despite the minor advance over Thursday’s $4,020 peak.

Key 10-Day Close

Today’s projected close above the 10-day average at $3,978 marks the first such occurrence since the line flipped from support to resistance on October 21. This development signals improving short-term demand and raises odds for a continued push toward the 20-day average, currently $4,082 and range-bound over the past week.

20-Day Resistance Outlook

The 20-day average has traded sideways recently, making gold’s reaction to it key in the current environment. A rally into $4,082 is expected to encounter selling pressure, potentially triggering a bearish reversal that retests recent lows as support—consistent with the broader consolidation phase.

Immediate Downside Levels

A drop below Friday’s $3,974 low would flash weakness and target the interim swing low at $3,929. Further downside exposes the recent swing low at $3,886, now increasingly significant with the rising 50-day average at $3,878 converging nearby.

Deeper Support Confluence

The 50% retracement at $3,846 aligns closely with the 50-day line and $3,886 zone. Watch for a potential undercut-and-run scenario: a brief violation of the prior swing low followed by swift recovery and renewed strength—classic false breakdown behavior.

50-Day Significance

The 50-day average has not been tested as support since gold reclaimed it in the second half of August, marking the start of the latest rally leg. An eventual pullback to this level remains anticipated and would represent a healthy development for the bull trend, especially after the 20-day already failed as support.

Outlook

Short-term strengthening via the 10-day close supports a probe toward the $4,082 20-day average, where a bearish response is possible. Failure to hold $3,974 opens the path to $3,929–$3,886, with the 50-day/50% confluence at $3,846–$3,878 as the high-probability bounce zone. A false breakdown there could catalyze the next upside leg; sustained weakness below flips the focus to lower prices.

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