Gold (XAU/USD) Price Forecast: Eyes Record Close as Bulls Confront Resistance

Gold Marks New Weekly Closing High as Resistance Nears

Gold advanced on Friday to a three-day high of $3,784, edging closer to Wednesday’s record $3,791. Buyers kept demand intact as support at the 10-Day moving average was not tested, instead pushing price toward a likely new weekly closing high. With today’s session set to finish above Tuesday’s $3,764 closing price, gold is positioned for its strongest weekly close ever, underscoring resilient demand.

Testing Resistance Near Key Zone

The rally continues to confront resistance between $3,782 and $3,812, where at least five indicators converge. While Friday’s move suggests a continuation of the broader uptrend, momentum is visibly slowing. Price could still extend toward the upper boundary of the zone, but traders are closely watching how gold reacts within this cluster of resistance levels.

Higher Targets if Breakout Sustains

A decisive breakout above $3,812 would open the door to higher projections. The most notable is a 261.8% extension of the large ABCD pattern at $3,896, derived from a harmonic relationship of two rising measured moves. Further up is a confluence zone from $3,982 to $3,998. That would be the next next key target zone, though it remains distant unless bullish momentum strengthens meaningfully.

Signs of Slowing Momentum

Despite price strength, momentum indicators flash caution. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) shows a bearish divergence, with price at new highs but momentum failing to confirm. This divergence, alongside current resistance near the top boundary of a rising trend channel, suggests upside breakouts may struggle to sustain without consolidation.

Short-Term Support Levels

Initial support rests at today’s low of $3,734, followed by the 10-Day moving average at $3,712. More significant is the 20-Day line at $3,650, reinforced by the broader structure of the channel. A drop below these levels would increase the likelihood of a deeper retracement, potentially signaling that gold’s rally has overextended in the short run.

Outlook

For now, the trend remains bullish with buyers holding the upper hand, and the record close this week reflects robust demand. Yet weakening momentum and proximity to key resistance levels warrant caution. Until price either breaks decisively above $3,812 or drops under $3,712, gold’s next directional move remains a contest between sustained buying and the risk of correction.

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