Gold (XAU/USD) Price Forecast: Slips Below 8-Day Average, Momentum Fades

Gold Weakens as Short-Term Momentum Breaks

Gold fell to a three-day low of $3,628 on Wednesday, breaking below the 8-Day moving average for the first time since late August. The average had been a consistent source of dynamic support throughout the rally and falling below it signals fading short-term momentum. A daily close beneath yesterday’s $3,646 low would confirm the breakdown, leaving gold vulnerable to additional weakness.

Bearish Signals Building

A decline below today’s low would confirm continuation of the pullback, while a break under Monday’s $3,627 low would strengthen bearish signals. If this weakness holds into the weekly close, gold could complete a potentially bearish shooting star candlestick pattern. Confirmation would come with a drop below this week’s low, increasing the case for a deeper retracement. Momentum indicators are also shifting, with the relative strength index (RSI) turning lower after remaining overbought for much of September.

Key Downside Targets

The first notable target is the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at $3,557. Importantly, the rising 20-Day moving average is approaching that level, and once it moves above, the average is likely to define the first significant downside support. If gold weakens further, last week’s low at $3,576 becomes critical. A break below it would generate another weekly reversal signal, adding weight to the case for further downside toward the 20-Day line.

Additional support exists around the prior breakout level near $3,500, reinforced by the 50% retracement at $3,511. Further down, the 61.8% Fibonacci level at $3,465 aligns with the rising 50-Day moving average near $3,429, creating a broader potential support zone if the pullback deepens.

Outlook

Despite short-term weakness, gold remains in a long-term uptrend, supported by this year’s breakout and strong demand profile. Whether the 20-Day average can stabilize the decline will be key in determining if this pullback remains a routine correction or evolves into a deeper retracement. For now, the bulls have lost near-term momentum, and the bears have their first real opportunity in weeks.

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