Gold (XAU/USD) Price Forecast: Third-Highest Weekly Close Ever – Momentum Still Missing

Friday’s Failed Breakout Attempt

Gold cleared a price of $4,241 early Friday to signal a four-day bullish breakout, reaching $4,259 and establishing both a higher daily high and a higher low of $4,195. Sellers quickly reclaimed control after the high, pushing price back toward the session lows where it continues to trade at writing—placing the breakout at immediate risk of failure.

Range and Support Structure

A failed move keeps gold trapped inside a five-day tight range between $4,164 and $4,264. The rising 10-day average at $4,186—successfully defended this week—remains the primary near-term dynamic support alongside this week’s $4,164 low. As long as gold holds above the 10-day line, the bias stays bullish.

Confirmation Levels

A daily close above Thursday’s $4,219 high would show minor strength, but true breakout validation requires settlement above last week’s high and the six-week peak at $4,245. A decisive push and sustained trade above $4,264 is ultimately needed to prove buyers are back in charge.

Weekly Pattern Evolution

The recent correction ended with a higher swing low at $3,886, followed by a repeating sequence: inside week to upside breakout to inside week to upside breakout. This week has deviated slightly with a very narrow range mostly near last week’s highs instead of a fresh advance, yet the relative strength is clear, and gold is on track for its third-highest weekly close in history.

Broader Support Backdrop

Friday’s bounce off the 10-day average reinforces its short-term importance. Should it fail, the 20-day average at $4,144—currently converging with the late-November uptrend line—steps up as the next significant dynamic defense.

Outlook

Gold continues flashing higher-price potential, but momentum remains conspicuously absent. Hold the 10-day average and deliver a close above $4,241–$4,245 to keep the bull case intact and target $4,264+; failure to do so risks another leg lower toward the 20-day/trendline confluence while the larger uptrend stays safe with price above the 50-day average, now at $4,076.

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