Gold (XAU/USD) Price Forecast: Weekly Close Above $4,109 Confirms Breakout

Thursday’s Reversal Action

Gold rallied early Thursday to a high of $4,245 but met aggressive selling, sliding to a current low of $4,145 at writing. Price remains down on the day and near session lows, actively testing the two ascending top channel lines that were decisively cleared and confirmed with Wednesday’s close above both.

Channel Support Test

The pullback now probes these former breakout levels as potential support. Holding here would reinforce bullish continuation; a weak daily close, however, risks failure of the channel lines and opens deeper correction toward the 20-day average.

Core Dynamic Support

The 20-day average at $4,072—recently sideways and now edging lower—defines the primary near-term floor. The 10-day average at $4,049 adds short-term confluence, having proven support on both Monday and last Friday to fuel the ongoing advance.

Higher Low and Trend Line

Gold retains its higher swing low at $3,886 and stays above the new uptrend line connecting that base. Preserving this structure keeps the broader bullish trend intact despite short-term pressure.

Weekly Confirmation Pending

This week’s decisive signal hinges on the weekly closing. A finish above the $4,109 weekly high would validate the breakout to today’s three-week peak at $4,245 and cement intermediate strength.

Upside Targets

Surpassing $4,245 targets the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement at $4,275. A clean push through that zone brings the $4,381 record high back into focus. The overall bull structure—untested rising 50-day average and supportive 10-week moving average—favors eventual continuation.

Outlook

Gold’s test of the reclaimed channel lines will dictate near-term tone. Support at $4,145–$4,072 must hold to protect the breakout; failure opens risk to the 10-day and 20-day confluence. A weekly close above $4,109 confirms momentum and targets $4,275–$4,381. Any deeper pullback to dynamic averages would remain healthy for the trend, allowing demand to reload before the next assault on record highs.

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