Gold (XAUUSD) Price Forecast: 50-Day MA in Focus Ahead of Key Fed Minutes

Gold Price Holds Key Support Ahead of Crucial U.S. Jobs Report

Spot gold is trading nearly flat on Monday, stabilizing after last week’s 2% drop, as the market hovers around a key short-term retracement zone at $4065.83 to $4023.35. With U.S. data releases resuming after a prolonged blackout, traders are taking a cautious stance ahead of high-impact economic updates expected to influence the Fed’s next move.

At 13:46 GMT (XAUUSD) is trading $4069.24, down $16.58 or -0.41%.

Markets Await September Jobs Report and FOMC Minutes

The delayed September nonfarm payrolls report, due Thursday, is the focal point this week. Investors are watching for signs of labor market strength that could influence the Federal Reserve’s rate outlook for December. Odds for a 25-basis-point cut have dropped to around 45%, down sharply from more than 62% last week, according to CME’s FedWatch Tool.

Alongside payrolls, traders will parse FOMC minutes for insight into the central bank’s policy leanings. A string of additional delayed reports, including August construction spending and trade data, are also set to hit. With uncertainty still clouding the economic picture, any surprising strength or weakness could drive sharp repositioning in gold.

Stronger U.S. Dollar and Soft Treasury Yields Limit Gold’s Upside

Gold remains under pressure from a firm U.S. dollar, which extended gains for a second straight session on Monday. The Dollar Index’s strength continues to weigh on bullion by making it more expensive for holders of other currencies.

Treasury yields, meanwhile, edged lower, with the benchmark 10-year yield dipping to 4.127% and the 2-year note at 3.604%. Lower yields typically support non-yielding assets like gold, but the impact has been muted given the shift in Fed rate cut expectations.

Technical Outlook: Support at $4023.35 Holds the Bias

Technically, spot gold is testing a critical retracement zone from $4065.83 to $4023.35. If this support range fails, the next key level is the 50-day moving average at $3947.13. Buyers may emerge on the first test of that average, but a breakdown below it would indicate a potential trend reversal.

On the upside, resistance remains capped by the formation of a secondary lower top at $4245.20. A retracement zone between $4133.95 and $4192.36 also stands in the way of a bullish recovery. A breakout above $4245.20 would shift momentum back toward the record high at $4381.44.

Gold Price Forecast: Neutral-to-Bearish Below $4023.35

The near-term bias leans bearish while gold trades below $4065.83 and especially if $4023.35 breaks. A clean move through this support could open the door to $3947.13 and potentially trigger broader liquidation.

However, any soft surprises in Thursday’s data could spark safe-haven buying and stabilize prices. Bulls need a close above $4245.20 to regain control and re-engage the record high.

More Information in our Economic Calendar.