Gold (XAUUSD) Price Forecast: Base-Building at $3886.46 or Breakdown Brewing?

Gold Price Holds $3886.46 Support as Rate Cut Bets Fade, Dollar Firms

Spot gold (XAU/USD) is trading flat-to-lower into Friday’s close, holding just above this week’s low at $3886.46. The price action suggests base-building is underway, but buyers haven’t stepped in with size yet. Gold is still on track for a third straight monthly gain — up nearly 4% in October — though the latest dip reflects fading rate cut odds and a dollar that won’t back off.

At 14:01 GMT, XAU/USD is trading $4021.58, down $3.14 or -0.08%.

Dollar Strength Pressures Gold as Powell Pushes Back on December Cut

The U.S. dollar index (DXY) is hovering at three-month highs after breaking above the October high at 99.563. It now sets up a test of the main top at 100.257. That strength continues to weigh on gold, with greenback-denominated pricing becoming more expensive for non-dollar buyers.

While Wednesday’s 25 bp Fed rate cut initially supported gold, Powell’s tone at the press conference quickly soured sentiment. He signaled division inside the Fed and warned markets not to assume a December cut. That knocked rate cut odds from 91.1% to 67%, according to CME’s FedWatch tool — a shift that flipped the bias against gold short term.

Technical Focus: $3821.27 50-Day MA Is the Trend Trigger

Technically, the 50-day moving average at $3821.27 is doing a lot of heavy lifting. It’s support, it’s the trend indicator, and it’s the trigger point for any acceleration to the downside. A clean break below it opens the door to bearish momentum and could quickly erase the base-building effort. Also in play is the long-term 50% retracement level at $3846.50 — a failure there would be another red flag.

On the flip side, holding these levels could keep buyers engaged and build enough energy to push gold into the short-term retracement zone from $4133.95 to $4192.36.

Gold Price Forecast: Bulls Defend, But the 50-Day Controls the Bias

Right now, the market’s leaning neutral-to-bearish — but not committed. Gold’s holding support, but no one’s chasing it higher. The 50-day MA at $3821.27 remains the key trend gauge. As long as it holds, the “buy-the-dip” crowd stays alive. Lose it, and that mindset flips quickly.

A move below $3886.46 puts $3846.50 and then the 50-day in play. If those crack, we could see momentum pick up to the downside. Until then, this remains a “prove it” zone for bulls — but they’re running out of room.

More Information in our Economic Calendar.