Gold (XAUUSD) Price Forecast: Bulls Defend $4133.95 as Fed Cut Bets Fuel Breakout Hopes

Gold Price Firms as Traders Test the 50% Level Ahead of Key U.S. Data

Spot gold is catching a bid this Wednesday, and the tape looks a bit punchier as buyers try to put some distance between the 50% retracement at $4133.95 and build on support carved out inside the $4065.83–$4023.35 zone. It’s a tight area — and the market knows it.

We’re basically sitting right on the line where momentum either extends toward the 61.8% level at $4192.36 or slips back into the retracement pocket.

At 14:31 GMT, XAUUSD is trading $4145.47, up $14.92 or +0.36%.

Gold Market Pushes Higher as Fed Cut Bets Flood Back In

The latest U.S. data gave gold some breathing room. Soft retail sales, weaker consumer confidence, and stable producer prices all fed into renewed expectations for a December rate cut. Traders have gone from pricing roughly 30% odds last week to over 80% now. That’s a major sentiment shift, and gold reacted exactly how you’d expect a non-yielding asset to react — it jumped more than 1%, touching a near two-week high.

UBS says they still see upside into year-end with targets around $4200 and $4500 next year. Deutsche Bank bumped its 2026 forecast to $4450, flagging steady investor flows and persistent central bank demand. So there’s no shortage of bullish longer-term calls, even if spot is wrestling with a short-term ceiling at $4133.95.

Traders Eye Fed Chair Speculation While Yields Edge Up

The Treasury market was slightly firmer, though not enough to dent gold’s tone. The 10-year is hovering near 4.02%, and the 2-year picked up a few basis points to 3.485%. That’s hardly aggressive selling pressure. Jobless claims came in at 216,000, their lowest since April, which may slow the rate-cut narrative a touch — but not enough to derail it.

One thing traders are watching closely is the Fed chair chatter. Kevin Hassett is being pushed as the frontrunner, and he’s known to favor lower rates. If that view gains traction, it only strengthens the “cut in December” story that’s helping gold stay supported.

Dollar Rebounds but Lacks Conviction — For Now

The Dollar Index bounced off pivot support at 99.693 and reclaimed the 200-day at 99.781, though the move came on light volume. Holiday-thinned markets mean we shouldn’t over-interpret the rebound, but a stronger dollar would complicate gold’s upside if it sticks later in the week.

Gold Price Forecast: Bulls Need $4133.95 to Hold or the Floor Opens Up

Here’s the bottom line: gold is perched at a critical spot. Buyers want a clean push toward $4192.36, then the $4245.20 main top. Break that, and the record high at $4381.44 is back in play.

But if $4133.95 fails as support, sellers will press quickly into $4065.83–$4023.35. Lose that zone and the market is staring straight at the 50-day MA at $4009.06 — the last major line before sell stops start triggering.

Bias leans bullish as long as gold holds above $4133.95, but the market won’t give buyers much slack here.

More Information in our Economic Calendar.