Gold (XAUUSD) Price Forecast: Bulls Defend $4192.36 as Fed Outlook Drives Sentiment

Gold Price Analysis as Traders Lean on the $4192.36 Pivot

Here’s what’s moving Spot Gold prices right now — traders are locked onto the 61.8% retracement at $4192.36, which is the immediate line in the sand for short-term direction.

Spot prices are drifting slightly higher as buyers defend that Fib level, treating it as the nearest area of value. The 50-day moving average at $4090.16 remains broader trend support, but with nearly $100 of air between current trade and that indicator, the market is concentrating squarely on the pivot.

If gold clears the last swing top at $4264.70, the recent decline will likely be viewed as a clean pullback into the Fib zone at $4192.36, the minor swing bottom at $4163.80, or even the 50% retracement at $4133.95. Some traders still prefer value near the 50-day MA at $4090.18, but the more active debate right now is whether to buy strength above the pivot or lean into weakness if the level briefly fails.

At 12:37 GMT, XAUUSD is trading $4202.37, up $11.71 or +0.28%.

Fed Expectations Take Center Stage for Gold Traders

Gold is holding firm as markets assign an 89.4% probability of a 25-basis-point cut, but traders are more focused on the Fed’s path after December. Bond desks are scaling back expectations for meaningful easing in 2026, reflecting skepticism that Kevin Hassett — viewed as the frontrunner to replace Powell — will take a dovish stance. That caution matters for gold because long-run rate expectations influence real yields and overall demand.

Powell’s tone is the real volatility trigger. A message that the Fed may pause after this meeting would stabilize the dollar and keep yields contained. A dovish signal that leaves January on the table would weaken the USD and support another push higher in gold. ActivTrades’ Ricardo Evangelista said gold could revisit $4300 if the Fed confirms softer guidance and appears comfortable with additional easing ahead.

Yields, Dollar Tone, and Key Data in Play

Treasury yields held steady, with the 10-year near 4.164%, as traders waited for October JOLTS — expected at 7.15 million. The dollar index at 99.125 shows limited repositioning ahead of Powell’s remarks. The euro ticked higher, and the yen eased after early quake-related caution faded.

Gold Price Forecast: Bullish Bias Holds While $4192.36 Acts as Support

The near-term bias stays bullish as long as buyers continue to defend the 61.8% retracement at $4192.36. A breakout above $4264.70 could attract momentum buying if the Fed leans dovish. A sustained drop toward $4090.16 would signal a deeper pullback and challenge the broader dip-buying strategy.

More Information in our Economic Calendar.