Gold (XAUUSD) Price Forecast: Bulls Eye $4192.36 Breakout as Gold Rally Extends

Here’s What’s Moving the Gold Market Today

Spot Gold is grinding higher this Friday, holding the bullish side of the 50% retracement level at $4133.95 and pushing back into the upper end of its retracement zone near $4192.36. Post-holiday liquidity is still thin, but buyers are defending dips, keeping gold in a steady upside posture into month-end.

At 13:54 GMT, XAUUSD is trading $4175.49, up $16.69 or +0.40%.

A clean push through $4192.00 would open the door toward the November 13 main top at $4245.20, a level traders will be watching closely as the next upside target. Failure to hold $4133.95, however, exposes a pullback toward the $4065.83–$4023.35 minor support zone, which also contains the 50-day moving average at $4029.53 — the key trend marker keeping gold firmly in “buy-the-dip” mode as long as it holds.

Gold Price Rally Supported by Fed Rate Cut Expectations

Gold is on track for its fourth straight monthly gain, with spot prices touching a two-week high and heading for a 3.9% monthly increase. This week alone, bullion is set for a 2.7% gain, powered by growing confidence that the Federal Reserve will deliver a December rate cut.

Traders have ramped up pricing for a cut to 85%, compared with 50% just a week ago. That repricing accelerated after comments from Fed Governor Christopher Waller, New York Fed President John Williams, and a run of softer U.S. data following the government shutdown. With lower-rate expectations taking hold, non-yielding assets like gold continue to attract steady interest.

Gold Market Reaction to CME Outage

Friday’s session was also marked by a brief disruption after an outage at CME Group halted activity across FX, commodities, Treasuries and equity futures. Before the stoppage, U.S. gold futures (December) were last quoted at $4,221.30 per ounce. While the outage created a temporary pause in price discovery, sentiment remained solidly positive heading into the afternoon session.

Dollar Weakness Adds Fuel to the Gold Price Move

The U.S. dollar is set for its worst week since late July, giving gold an additional lift. A softer greenback makes dollar-priced bullion cheaper for overseas buyers, reinforcing the bullish tone already supported by central bank buying and broader concerns tied to global debt, tariffs and sanctions — as highlighted by analyst Ross Norman.

Gold Price Forecast: Bulls Maintain Control for Now

As long as spot gold holds above $4133.95 and, more importantly, stays over the $4029.53 50-day moving average inside the $4065.83–$4023.35 support zone, the short-term bias stays bullish.

A breakout above $4192.00 would strengthen the upside case toward $4245.20, while a break below $4133.95 would downgrade momentum and point to a deeper pullback into the minor support area.

More Information in our Economic Calendar.