Gold (XAUUSD) Price Forecast: Bulls Eye Breakout Above $4133.95 Resistance

Gold Steady as Traders Eye Break Above $4133.95 Resistance

Spot gold is inching higher on Wednesday as traders continue to test the 50% retracement level of the key short-term zone at $4133.95. A sustained move through this level would signal fresh buying momentum, with the 61.8% retracement at $4192.36 serving as both resistance and a potential trigger for acceleration toward the record high at $4381.44.

At 13:47 GMT, (XAU/USD) is trading $4131.52, up $5.02 or +0.12%.

Renewed selling pressure from this zone would suggest weak follow-through, but overall sentiment remains bullish while the 50-day moving average at $3914.61 continues to control the trend. The broader structure favors dip-buying as long as the market stays above that level. Additional support is seen at a pair of minor bottoms at $3928.68 and $3886.46, followed by the intermediate 50% level at $3846.50.

Traders Watching U.S. House Vote on Government Reopening

Gold is steady as investors await the U.S. House of Representatives vote on a deal to reopen the federal government. The Senate approved the measure earlier this week, and passage in the House could end the record shutdown and clear the way for delayed U.S. economic data — information that’s crucial for shaping expectations around Federal Reserve policy.

UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo said the market is holding firm ahead of the vote. “Everyone is waiting for clarity on the government shutdown and when U.S. data starts flowing again,” he said. “We’re still in an uptrend; nothing from the structural side has changed.”

Market Leaning Toward December Rate Cut

According to CME’s FedWatch tool, traders now assign a 67% probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut at the Fed’s December 10 meeting, up from 62% a day earlier. The shift comes after ADP reported U.S. companies were cutting more than 11,000 jobs per week through late October, reinforcing the softening labor trend.

The combination of weaker data, easing Fed expectations, geopolitical risk, and steady ETF inflows has powered gold’s 57% year-to-date rally, culminating in the record high at $4381.21 in late October.

Outlook: Bullish Bias Intact While 50-Day Moving Average Guides Trend

Gold remains in an uptrend while the 50-day moving average at $3914.61 governs the broader direction. A decisive push through $4192.36 could open a run toward $4381.44, while failure to hold gains above $4133.95 may lead to another test of near-term support.

Bottom line: The trend is still up, the bias is still to buy dips, and traders are watching both Washington and $4192.36 for the next breakout cue.

More Information in our Economic Calendar.