Gold (XAUUSD) Price Forecast: Can Bulls Hold $4192.36 or Will Sellers Force a Breakdown?

Gold Price Holds 61.8% Level as Traders Await Fed Decision

Spot Gold (XAUUSD) is straddling the key 61.8% retracement at $4192.36 for an eighth straight session on Wednesday as traders wait for the Fed’s rate decision, updated 2026 projections, and comments from Chair Jerome Powell. With a 25-basis-point cut already priced at an 88% probability, the market is focused squarely on forward guidance and how Powell frames the policy path.

At 12:32 GMT, XAUUSD is trading $4198.40, down $9.51 or -0.23%.

Will Gold Break Above $4192.36 or Slip Toward the 50% Level?

For gold traders, the reaction to $4192.36 remains the primary reference point. A sustained move over this level signals buyers are willing to add risk even as Treasury yields extend higher.

The 10-year yield is trading near a three-month high at 4.207%, while the 30-year is holding at 4.822%. Higher yields have capped gold’s upside in recent sessions, a trend noted by WisdomTree’s Nitesh Shah. Investor demand through physically backed products also lags silver, creating a mild drag on the gold market.

Fed Uncertainty Keeps Gold Range-Bound

The FOMC will issue its statement at 1900 GMT, followed by Powell at 1930 GMT. The committee is split, with six members favoring additional easing and six preferring to hold.

This has set the stage for what many expect to be a “hawkish cut,” where the Fed delivers the reduction but signals limited appetite for further moves. Former Fed official Bill English suggested the message could emphasize comfort with current policy unless inflation forces a change.

Traders want clarity on the 2026 dot plot, where expectations for deeper cuts have been pulled back due to firmer inflation and stronger labor data.

Broader Market Watches Powell and Rate Path for 2026

U.S. job openings ticked higher in October, reinforcing the case for a resilient economy. Meanwhile, White House adviser Kevin Hassett — now a frontrunner to replace Powell — said there is “plenty of room” to cut further, though higher inflation could alter the outlook.

RBC Capital Markets boosted its long-term gold forecasts to $4,600 in 2026 and $5,100 in 2027, citing geopolitical and fiscal drivers. Those projections underscore why traders remain aggressive dip buyers when the fundamental backdrop supports non-yielding assets.

Gold Price Forecast: Bullish Above $4192.36, Bearish Below

If buyers hold price above $4192.36, a breakout toward $4264.70 becomes feasible, opening the door to the record high at $4381.44. But if Powell’s tone weighs on sentiment and sellers push the market back under $4192.36, gold could slide toward the 50% retracement at $4133.95 and the 50-day moving average at $4096.95.

That zone has been the anchor since August 22. A failure there exposes $3846.50. Short-term bias hinges entirely on Powell and the 2026 guidance — traders will respond quickly to either confirmation or disappointment.

More Information in our Economic Calendar.