Gold (XAUUSD) Price Forecast: Can Bulls Hold the 50-Day MA as Fed Cut Bets Soar?

Safe-Haven Demand Lifts XAU/USD—Can It Hold Above the 50-Day Moving Average?

Spot gold extended gains on Thursday as traders responded to renewed safe-haven demand, driven by the implementation of aggressive U.S. tariffs and mounting expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts.

At 11:01 GMT, XAU/USD is trading $3373.57, up $4.300 or +0.13%.

The yellow metal briefly spiked to $3,397.58—its highest level since July 25—before easing back to $3,377.17. Key technical support remains at the 50-day moving average of $3,347.60, and price action above this level keeps gold in a “buy-the-dip” mode.

A sustained move above the intraday high of $3,397.58 could clear the path toward resistance at $3,439.04 and $3,451.53, while a drop below the 50-day MA risks a pullback toward $3,332.85.

A lower daily close would be an early signal of selling pressure, but as long as gold holds the MA, the broader uptrend remains intact.

U.S. Tariffs Reignite Risk-Off Trade, Supporting Gold Prices

Gold’s rally is underpinned by geopolitical uncertainty after U.S. President Donald Trump’s wide-reaching “reciprocal” tariffs took effect. The new duties range from 10% to 50% on dozens of countries, including a 100% tariff on imported semiconductors, unless firms commit to domestic manufacturing. Trump’s hardline trade stance has triggered global concern, weakening the U.S. dollar and amplifying demand for traditional hedges like gold.

The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) fell to a 1½-week low at 98.00, making gold more attractive for non-dollar holders.

Meanwhile, Treasury yields were little changed, with the 10-year at 4.24% and the 2-year yield ticking up slightly to 3.716%, showing a cautious market mood amid trade policy uncertainty.

Federal Reserve Cut Bets Intensify, Lending Further Support

Market pricing now reflects a 93% probability of a 25-basis-point Fed rate cut in September, a sharp jump from 48% a week ago, per the CME FedWatch tool.

Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari signaled support for near-term easing in response to U.S. economic weakness, while President Trump indicated that all upcoming Fed nominations would be candidates favoring rate cuts.

Lower rates generally reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like gold, supporting its appeal in a slowing growth environment. Analysts from NAB continue to see upward pressure on gold extending through 2026, with average prices projected at $3,220 in 2025 and $3,475 in 2026.

Gold Market Outlook: Bullish Bias Holds as Rate Cuts Loom

As gold holds above its 50-day moving average and with safe-haven flows supported by escalating tariffs and dovish Fed expectations, the bullish bias remains intact.

A break above $3,397.58 could generate enough momentum to test resistance at $3,439.04–$3,451.53.

With the dollar weakening and markets firmly pricing in a Fed cut, gold prices are likely to stay supported in the near term.

Traders should continue watching technical levels closely, particularly the 50-day MA, for signs of trend continuation or exhaustion.

More Information in our Economic Calendar.